Premiership odds for team to be Relegated - dated 09/12/13

I am looking at the odds for the Premiership team to be relegated

Premiership Table - 09/12/13 (not including Swansea v Hull match)
Taken from Flashscores.co.uk 

And at present, Sunderland, Crystal Palace and Fulham are in the relegation zone.

The odds taken from Betfair and although Crystal Palace are still favourites, and they are only a point away from safety. Could be worth a small wager they escape

Football result 08/12/13

Sunday picks all turned out to be over 0.5 goals.

Obviously I did not pick all the matches, as I tend to let the odds for over 0.5 goals rise to reasonable betting odd, and quite a few had early goals.

But I will continue to pick a batch of games, and try to bet one one or two only. Low odds, but the less games I pick the lower the chance of picking 0-0.

Football - 08/12/13

My picks for over 0.5 goals for Sunday matches

Unfortunately the 11.30am kick off has had a goal already (I picked them yesterday), but woke up late...

Football result 07/12/13

I picked one game that finished 0-0. Luckily that was a game the QPR game, as I thought this would be 0-0 at HT. I am not sure why I picked that game.

I think I am going to keep with the over 0.5 goal, as I have been playing other strategies and I have been losing.

Football prediction 07/12/13 - Over 0.5 goals

My picks for over 0.5 goals for today's games.

I won't pick them all, these are the matches I will pick from, and hopefully all are over 0.5 goals, so I will win whichever I pick.

Away teams that are favourite (under EVENS)

PREMIERSHIP
Southampton v Man City (3/4) prediction: 1-3
Stoke v Chelsea (8/13) prediction: 0-2

There are none in the Championship.

I am looking at seeing how often the favourites end up on top, and whether a LAY bet on the Away team is worth a wager or not.

World Cup draw and odds - Based on Betfair

I am intrigued on how odds change, so I have provided the odds and draws as per group (taken from Betfair.com on 06/12/13)

So based on the odds, the favourites per group are:- Brazil (4.4), Spain (8.8), Columbia (23), Uruguay (30), France (22), Argentina (6), Germany (7.4), and Belgium (16)

France suppose to have a good draw, and favourite for the group.
England seems to be in a tough draw, as they have not beaten Italy in a competition.

I wonder if the odds will now change based on the draw?

Europa result

Result of the Europa matches with the first goal time, and the odds at under 0.5 goals.
No games finished 0-0, so since picking 0-0 games, there have now become scarce.

If I played the over 0.5 goals then I would have won irrespective what game I picked, and also could have picked a game at 0-0 at half-time, and would have won at that point.

17:00
Anzhi v Tottenham 13.5 (34th)
Kuban v Valencia 11.5 (60th)
Shaktar v Haifa 12 (40th)
Kazan v Waregem 16.5 (73rd)

18:00
Alkmaar v PAOK 12
Genk v Thun 13.5 (55th)
Legia v Apollon 10 (56th)
Liberec v Estroril 12 (15th)
Lyon v Guimaraes 12 (39th)
Rapid Vienna v Din Kiev 12 (30th)
Rijeka v Betis 12 (10th)
Sevilla v Freiburg 18.5 (63rd)
Trabzonspor v Lazio 10 (12th)
Tromso v S Tiraspol 11 (65th)

20:05
APOEL v Frankfurt 9.4 (27th)
Bordeaux v Tel Aviv 9.4 (48th)
Odessa v PSV 12 (13th)
Dnipro v Fiorentino 12 (53rd)
Elfsberg v Salzburg 15.5 (6th)
Ferreira v Panuduri 11 (5th)
Ludogorets v Din Zagreb 9.6 (12th)
Swansea v St Gallen 15 (52nd)
Wigan v Maribor 12 (22nd)

Sun 29/09/13

Sunday matches with odds of 0-0 Full-time score in brackets.


11:00
Osasuna v Levante (9.4)


11:30
Torino v Juventus (13.5)

13:00
Rennes v Nantes (9.2)

13:30
Stoke v Norwich (9.6)

14:00
Atalanta v Udinese (10)
Cagliari v Inter (12.5)
Catania v Chievo (9.6)
Sassuolo v Lazio (11.5)
Verona v Livorno (9.6)

14:30
Bremen v Nurnberg (13)

15:00
Coventry v Brentford (15)

16:00
Sunderland v Liverpool (12.5)
###
Ajaccio v Montpellier (9)
###
Celta Vigo v Elche (10.5)

16:30
Braunschweig v Stuttgart (14.5)

18:00
Espanyol v Getafe (11.5)

19:45
AS Roma v Bologna (18)

20:00
Reims v Monaco (12)
###
Betis v Villarreal (13.5)

Sat 28/09/13

Matches (ordered by time) and odds of under 0.5 goals

12:15
N'Forest v Derby (13.5) - 41st

12:45
Tottenham v Chelsea (10.5)

14:30
Bayern v Wolfsburg (34)
Dortmund v Freiburg (36)
Hertha v Mainz (13.5)
Hoffenheim v Schalke (21)
Leverkusen v Hannover (26)


15:00
Aston Villa v Man City (14.5)
Fulham v Cardiff (11)
Hull v West Ham (9)
Man Utd v WBA (22)
Southampton v C Palace (15)
##
Bolton v Yeovil (15)
Bournemouth v Blackburn (12)
Burnley v Charlton (14)
Ipswich v Brighton (10.5)
Leicester v Barnsley (20)
Milwall v Leeds (11.5)
QPR v Middlesbrough (14)
Reading v Birmingham (14)
Sheff Wed v Doncaster (13.5)
Watford v Wigan (16.5)
##
Valencia v Vallecano (25)

17:00
Almeria v Barcelona (36)

17:30
Swansea v Arsenal (14.5)
##
Frankfurt v Hamburg (17.5)

19:00
Real Sociedad v Sevilla (13.5)

21:00
Real Madrid v Atl Madrid (21)

Wed 25/09/13 RESULTS

Results for Wednesday games.


19:00
Granada v Valencia (12) - 90th (0-0) 0-1
Sevilla v Vallecano (21) - 17th (1-0) 4-1

19:45
Bologna v AC Milan (10) - 12th (1-1) 3-3
Chievo v Juventus (13.5) - 28th (1-0) 1-2
Lazio v Catania (12) - 4th (2-1) 3-1
Livorno v Cagliari (9.4) - 23rd (1-0) 1-1
Napoli v Sassoulo (30) - 15th (1-1) 1-1
Parma v Atalanta (8.8) - 19th (4-2) 4-3
Sampdoria v AS Roma (11) - 65th (0-0) 0-2
Tonrino v Verona (9.2) - 36th (1-1) 2-2

Birmingham v Swansea (15) - 57th (0-0) 3-1
Man U v Liverpool (13.5) - 46th (0-0) 1-0
Newcastle v Leeds (15) - 31st (1-0) 2-0
Tranmere v Stoke (12) - 23rd (0-1) 0-2

20:00
West Brom v Arsenal (17.5) - 61st (0-0) 1-1
Monoca v Bastia - 39th (2-0) 3-0

21:00
Elche v Real Madrid (30) - 51st (0-0) 1-2

Wed 25/09/13 - Football

Matches and odds for under 0.5 goals for Tuesday


19:00
Granada v Valencia (12)
Sevilla v Vallecano (21)

19:45
Bologna v AC Milan (10)
Chievo v Juventus (13.5)
Lazio v Catania (12)
Livorno v Cagliari (9.4)
Napoli v Sassoulo (30)
Parma v Atalanta (8.8)
Sampdoria v AS Roma (11)
Tonrino v Verona (9.2)

Birmingham v Swansea (15)
Man U v Liverpool (13.5)
Newcastle v Leeds (15)
Tranmere v Stoke (12)

20:00
West Brom v Arsenal (17.5)

21:00
Elche v Real Madrid (30)

I have underlined the ones that I am considering (based on odds and haven't really looked if possible), so will get all wrong, but I will probably have a look at past performance before actually betting on the matches so they may change!

Tue 24/09/13 - RESULT

18:00
Lille v Evian TG (under 2.5 goals @ 1.82) - 12th (2-0) 3-0

19:00
Barcelona v Real Sociedad (under 0.5 goals @ 75) - 5th (3-0) 4-1
Levante v Valladolid (draw @ 3.45) - 36th (1-1) 1-1 - CORRECT

19:45
Udinese v Genoa (under 0.5 goals @ 11) - 79th (0-0) 1-0

20:00
Marseille v St Etienne (under 1.5 goals @ 3) - 22nd (2-1) 2-1

21:00
Atl Madrid v Osasuna (Under 0.5 goals @ 21) - 18th (2-1) 2-1
Malaga v Almeria (Under 1.5 goals @ 4.8) - 68th (0-0) 2-0

I only appear to have had one result right for today.
It is rather poor to be honest, but I did do okay with the Udinese game, as I pick 0-0 for HT and FT, so I won the half time result which was at 3.05, and as the goal was scored in the 79th minute, I did manage to lay 0-0, and won £6 instead of £15.

Tue 24/09/13 - Football

A quick look on the games playing on Tuesday, and I have altered my bets (I should really stick to one strategy, but I always alter it, until I get a completely worse strategy that I lose, and then give up on, when I should play the one that works well!

Obvioulsy Barcelona will win, but I am hopeful that they can make it to half-time at 0-0, then I will definitely cash out, Should get a reasonable sum back as it is very unlikely.

18:00
Lille v Evian TG (under 2.5 goals @ 1.82)

19:00
Barcelona v Real Sociedad (under 0.5 goals @ 75)
Levante v Valladolid (draw @ 3.45)

19:45
Udinese v Genoa (under 0.5 goals @ 11)

20:00
Marseille v St Etienne (under 1.5 goals @ 3)

21:00
Atl Madrid v Osasuna (Under 0.5 goals @ 21)
Malaga v Almeria (Under 1.5 goals @ 4.8)

Sun 22/09/13 - Results

Results for Sunday matches. There hasn't been many early goals in the previous weeks, so it looks like today is going to be loads. I am not that bothered if I lose, as already got a 0-0 result from the 11am kick off @ 12.5, so I can lose all the rest. One interesting bet, could be to bet on 0-10 min first goal, but too late now.
In hindsight, as soon as saw a few early goals, I should have also wagered the 0-10 min first goal scored (normally around 4/1).

11:00
Betis v Granada 12.5 - (0-0) 0-0

11:30
Sassuolo v Inter 13.5 - 7th (0-3) 0-7

13:00
Lorient v Bordeaux 9.2 - 8th (2-3) 3-3

13:30
Arsenal v Stoke 17 - 5th (2-1) 3-1
C Palace v Swansea 11.5 - 2nd (0-1) 0-2

14:00
AS Roma v Lazio 13 - 63rd (0-0) 2-0
Atalanta v Fiorentino 11.5 - 41st (0-1) 0-2
Bologna v Torino 9.2 - 2nd (1-2) 1-2
Catania v Parma 10.5 (0-0) 0-0
Juventus v Verona 25 - 37th (2-1) 2-1

14:30
Freiburg v Hertha 13.5 - 6th (1-1) 1-1

15:00
Wigan v Ipswich 13.5 - 12th (1-0) 2-0
Dundee Utd v Motherwell 13 - 30th (0-1) 2-2

16:00
Cardiff v Tottenham 12 - 90th (0-0) 0-1
Man City v Man Utd 12.5 - 16th (2-0) 4-1
Lyon v Nantes 10 - 24th (1-1) 3-1
Nice v Valenciennes 9.6 - 32nd (2-0) 4-0
Celta Vigo v Villarreal 14.5 - (0-0) 0-0

16:30
Stuttgart v Frankfurt 16.5 - 14th (1-1) 1-1

18:00
Real Madrid v Getafe 65 - 5th (2-1) 4-1

19:45
AC Milan v Napoli 14 - 6th (0-1) 1-2

20:00
PSG v Monaco 12 - 5th (1-1) 1-1
Valencia v Sevilla 15 - 32nd (1-0) 3-1

Only three 0-0 scores for the day, so the strategy of picking 0-0 seems to be doing better than picking games for over 0.5 goals, so I will continue with this strategy, as I don't seem to lose too much, but I have a bigger profit margin, so worth the risk.

Sun 22/09/13 Football

My current strategy of Over 0.5 has a slight fault which I noticed as every time I lost I would double my bet, and when I win (normally at 1.11), I would only reduce my starting bet by 5% of the winnings, which meant I would be required to win 20 times in a row to get back to my original bet position. Obviously, I am more than likely to lose by that time, so I would double my bet again, and so on, slowly accumulating my starting bet until it got an outrageous amount that I would not consider betting.

I thought that picking a game that would not be 0-0 would be easy, but it appears, if you bet a lot of games, the chance of picking one is quite common.

I have listed the current matches playing today with the odds of 0-0 or under 0.5 goals (same bet, but sometimes different odds. Not 100% sure why that is, maybe some punters like playing one over the other and did not realise they are the same).

So my current strategy is now betting on 0-0 FT result. I have underlined the games, I am considering betting 0-0 on - obviously, I will get them all wrong, but may get one right, in which case, I should be up! If I am wrong, then I only lose a small amount of money.

11:00
Betis v Granada 12.5

11:30
Sassuolo v Inter 13.5

13:00
Lorient v Bordeaux 9.2

13:30
Arsenal v Stoke 17.00
C Palace v Swansea 11.5

14:00
AS Roma v Lazio 13
Atalanta v Fiorentino 11.5
Bologna v Torino 9.2
Catania v Parma 10.5
Juventus v Verona 25

14:30
Freiburg v Hertha 13.5

15:00
Wigan v Ipswich 13.5
Dundee Utd v Motherwell 13

16:00
Cardiff v Tottenham 12
Man City v Man Utd 12.5
Lyon v Nantes 10
Nice v Valenciennes 9.6
Celta Vigo v Villarreal 14.5

16:30
Stuttgart v Frankfurt 16.5

18:00
Real Madrid v Getafe 65

19:45
AC Milan v Napoli 14

20:00
PSG v Monaco 12
Valencia v Sevilla 15

Odds taken from betfair.com as of 22/09/13 10:42am, so may have changed.

If I have time, I will put the time the first goal went in, and the half-time and full-time score, and see if any games actually finished 0-0 at all.

Championship 17/08/13

The first games for the Premiership is starting today, and this is the third week for the Championship. The stats are still too early to find any patterns, but the games below are the teams that have both been involved in Both Teams to Score (BTS)

Leeds v Sheff Wed @ 1.79
Derby v Leicester @ 1.78
Middlesbrough v Blackpool @ 1.83
QPR v Ipswich @ 1.88

I don't think all the matches listed will be involved again, but there are always a few teams that have a high rate of BTS, so I am going to look again after a few more matches have been played, but I am still interested in the Lay 0-10min and now Lay 11-20 min for the first goal, as not many teams are involved in early goals.
So far, out the first 24 matches (including yesterday match) there has not been a goal in the first 10 minutes. Does that mean there will 2-3 games with an early goal...

I have done rather poorly in the laying of the early goal, but I do like playing this (even though I lose), but I need to play the over 0.5 goals which I more likely to win, but the odds are too low (which is my I win more).

With the added element of laying 11-20 minutes, the odds now increase to around 1.5 (from 1.2) although there is now a higher risk of me losing more times.

I have picked the Leeds match, and if I win this then I may pick the Liverpool game. If I lose I may try and stick to the over 0.5 goals until I build up my funds.

Who knows what I will do, but I really need to play properly this year and see if I can actually make a profit.

Football weekend 10/05/13

ENGLAND Premiership
*Aston Villa (2/2/8/18)  v Chelsea (3/4/4/18)
Everton (4/4/4/18) v West Ham (5/4/5/18)
**Fulham (5/3/4/18)  v Liverpool (8/4/2/18)
Man Utd (8/4/4/18) v Swansea (1/3/9/18)
*Norwich (3/3/7/18) v West Brom (3/2/4/18)
QPR (6/2/6/18) v Newcastle (4/5/5/18)
Stoke (4/2/7/18) v Tottenham (5/3/6/18)
Sunderland (3/3/5/18) v Southampton (5/1/4/18)


FRENCH Ligue 1

Lille (5/4/17) v Reims (4/4/17)
AC Ajaccio (3/8/17) v Troyes (3/6/17)
Bastia (4/5/17) v Montpellier (0/4/17)
Bordeaux (0/9/17) v Nancy (5/5/17)
***Brest (2/3/17) v Sochaux (1/6/17)
Marseille (0/7/17) v Toulouse (1/8/17)
***Valenciennes (5/5/17) v Rennes (4/3/17)
Evian (3/4/17) v Nice (3/5/17)
*Lorient (4/0/17) v St Etienne (3/5/17)
Lyon (2/7/17) v PSG (4/8/17)

GERMAN Bundesliga

**B Leverkusen (3/4/0/16) v Hannover (5/2/2/16)
**B Munich (4/3/1/16)  v Augsburg (4/1/2/16)
Dusseldorf (4/3/3/16) v Nuremburg (2/4/6/16)
G Furth (5/2/4/16) v Freiburg (3/2/5/16)
Mainz (5/1/7/16) v B M'Gladbach (4/0/5/16)
Schalke (1/4/5/16) v Stuttgart (4/2/5/16)
Hoffenheim (4/4/3/16) v Hamburg (3/4/5/16)
W Bremen (4/1/6/16) v Frankfurt (4/2/3/16)
Wolfsburg (3/2/1/16) v Dortmund (5/3/2/16)



ITALIAN Seria A

*Lazio (3/4/6/18) v Sampdoria (0/2/6/18)
Juventus (2/2/11/18) v Cagliari (4/4/8/18)
Chievo (3/2/7/18) v Torino (6/1/8/18)
Catania (3/2/9/18) v Pescara (3/3/6/18)
*Fiorentino (4/4/3/18) v Palermo (2/2/8/18)
Genoa (4/7/2/18) v Inter Milan (6/3/4/18)
Napoli (9/3/3/18) v Siena (3/5/5/18)
*Parma (2/5/8/18) v Bologna (4/0/11/18)
Udinese (2/4/6/18) v Atalanta (5/1/6/18)
AC Milan (4/2/6/18) v Roma (7/2/4/18)

SPANISH La Liga

**Levante (3/3/3/16) v Zaragoza (2/6/1/17)
Ath Bilbao (1/2/6/17) v Mallorca (3/3/6/17)
Espanyol (2/5/2/17) v Real Madrid (7/2/3/17)
Osasuna (3/1/11/17) v Getafe (3/3/6/17)
Valladolid (4/4/3/17) v Deportivo (3/7/0/17)
Atl Madrid (4/1/3/17)  v Barcelona (3/4/1/17)
*Malaga (3/4/5/17) v Sevilla (1/4/4/17)
Vallecano (5/5/5/17)  v Valencia (7/1/4/16)
**Betis (9/5/2/17) v Celta Vigo (2/6/5/17)
*Sociedad (1/2/8/17)  v Granada (3/2/6/17)

Football 08/05/13 - Result

PREMIERSHIP

Chelsea (3/3/4/17) v Tottenham (4/3/5/17) - 10th (2-1) 2-2

ITALIAN Serie A

Pescara (5/2/7/17) v AC Milan (1/5/3/17) - 9th (0-2) 0-4
Atalanta (4/1/6/17) v Juventus (5/4/7/17) - 18th (0-1) 0-1
Bologna (3/4/4/17) v Napoli (2/4/7/17) - 53rd (0-0) 0-3
Cagliari (1/3/9/17) v Parma (5/0/6/17) - 80th (0-0) 0-1
Inter Milan (5/3/5/17)  v Lazio (5/4/4/17) - 21st (1-2) 1-3
Palermo (5/1/7/18) v Udinese (2/3/4/17) - 9th (1-1) 2-3
*Sampdoria (1/2/7/17) v Catania (4/1/5/18) - 36th (1-0) 1-1
Siena (4/1/8/17) v Fiorentino (2/7/3/17) - 14th (0-1) 0-1
*Torino (2/2/8/17) v Genoa (0/3/11/16) - (0-0) 0-0


SPANISH La Liga

*Celta de Vigo (2/1/6/17) v Atl Madrid (2/3/8/17) - 47th (0-0) 1-3
Real Madrid (6/5/1/17) v Malaga (4/0/7/17) - 3rd (4-2) 6-2

Key: (0-10 fg / 11-20 fg / 0-0 HT / no of games)

I only picked three games to lay 0-10 min first goal, and they were all correct (*).

Football 08/05/13

Stat for todays matches

PREMIERSHIP

Chelsea (3/3/4/17) v Tottenham (4/3/5/17)

ITALIAN Serie A

Pescara (5/2/7/17) v AC Milan (1/5/3/17) - 9th
Atalanta (4/1/6/17) v Juventus (5/4/7/17)
Bologna (3/4/4/17) v Napoli (2/4/7/17)
Cagliari (1/3/9/17) v Parma (5/0/6/17)
Inter Milan (5/3/5/17)  v Lazio (5/4/4/17)
Palermo (5/1/7/18) v Udinese (2/3/4/17)
*Sampdoria (1/2/7/17) v Catania (4/1/5/18)
Siena (4/1/8/17) v Fiorentino (2/7/3/17)
*Torino (2/2/8/17) v Genoa (0/3/11/16)


SPANISH La Liga

*Celta de Vigo (2/1/6/17) v Atl Madrid (2/3/8/17)
Real Madrid (6/5/1/17) v Malaga (4/0/7/17)
Lay 0-0 HT is 5.8, 0-10 minutes 3.95; and 11-20 min 5.20


Key: (0-10 fg / 11-20 fg / 0-0 HT / no of games)

I have decided to see how often goals are scored in the 0-10 minute and 11-20 minutes, as this helps on whether the teams are involved in an early goal.

Football 03/05/13 - Result

I had an interesting weekend. Lost on Saturday, and made some back on Sunday.

I think laying 0-0 at half-time seems a good choice which I highlighted in blue for the ones I would have lost and in red for the matches that had an early goal, with the matches in black for the games that would have won no matter which lay I picked.

Barcelona and Real Madrid are good bets to lay 0-0 at half-time, but I have noticed that the odds are really poor so I tend to lay the 0-10 first goal (and lose) but the odds are better.
Juventus (home) are good to bet 0-0 at HT, so a lay of 0-10 FG is good, and the odds were pretty good. I do not know why but some games have a high odd for early matches especially when there is a clear favourite, so I tend to bet on these matches as they do not all have early goals and the odds are worth a lay.


I am still betting on over goals at half-time, as there are goals in the second half and the odds are higher - just got to pick the right match, although there are a few that tend to have an early goal and then no more goals (eg Arsenal match).

Key: 
(number of games scored in 0-10 min / number of games that was 0-0 at HT / total games)
* : lay 0-10min first goal
** : lay 0-0 at half-time
*** : either one

Friday
*19:30 M'gladbach (3/4/15) v Schalke (1/4/15) - 82nd (0-0) 0-1
*19:30 St Etienne (4/7/16) v Bordeaux (1/8/17) - (0-0) 0-0
**20:00 Celta Vigo (2/6/16) v Ath Bilbao (5/2/16) - 43rd (0-1) 1-1


Saturday

*12:45 Birmingham (1/5/22) v Blackburn (2/6/22) 42nd (1-0) 1-1
12:45 Bolton (7/8/21) v Blackpool (1/7/22) 21st (2-2) 2-2
12:45 Brighton (4/8/22) v Wolves (6/6/22) 5th (2-0) 2-0
*12:45 Burnley (3/8/23) v Ipswich (4/8/22) - 60th (0-0) 2-0
12:45 Charlton (3/11/22) v Bristol City (3/8/22) - 47th (0-0) 4-1
**12:45 C Palace (2/3/22) v P'boro (6/5/22) - 28th (1-1) 3-2
*12:45 Derby (1/4/22) v Millwall (4/8/22) - 85th (0-0) 1-0
12:45 H'field (6/8/22) v Barnsley (6/8/22) (1/4/5) - 14th (1-0) 2-2
12:45 Hull (2/7/22) v Cardiff (1/6/22) - 49th (0-0) 2-2
12:45 Nottingham (3/11/22)  (0/3/5) v Leicester (2/9/22) - 3rd (1-2) 2-3
**12:45 Shef Wed (3/6/22) v M'boro (5/6/22) - 9th (2-0) 2-0
*12:45 Watford (5/7/22) v Leeds (1/12/22) - 42nd (1-1) 1-2

14:30 Bremen (3/6/15) v Hoffenheim (6/1/15) - 2nd (2-0) 2-2
*14:30 Frankfurt (3/4/15) v Dusseldorf (2/4/16) - 31st (1-0) 3-1
14:30 Hannover (5/4/15) v Mainz (4/6/15) - 25th (1-1) 2-2
*14:30 Nurnberg (4/4/15) v Leverkusen (3/3/15) - 26th (0-1) 0-2
14:30 Stuttgart (3/5/15) v Furth (3/6/15) - 51st (0-0) 0-2

*15:00 Valencia (4/3/17) v Osasuna (2/7/16) - 39th (2-0) 4-0
15:00 Fulham (5/4/17) v Reading (2/6/17) - 12th (0-1) 2-4
15:00 Norwich (3/6/17) v Aston Villa (7/3/17) - 55th (0-0) 1-2
15:00 Swansea (4/7/17) v Man City (5/8/17) - (0-0) 0-0
15:00 Tottenham (5/7/17) (3/1/5) v Southampton (5/3/17) - 86th (0-0) 1-0
15:00 WBA (3/6/17) v Wigan (1/9/17) - 29th (1-1) 2-3
15:00 West Ham (3/3/18) v Newcastle (4/4/17) - (0-0) 0-0

*16:00 Marseille (0/7/16) v Bastia (3/6/17) - 12th (1-0) 2-1

17:00 Granada (2/5/16) v Malaga (4/7/16) both 0-0 & 0-10 - 28th (1-0) 1-0
17:00 Chievo (3/6/17) v Cagliari (4/7/17) - (0-0) 0-0
17:30 Dortmund (5/1/15) v Bayern (1/4/15) - 11th (1-1) 1-1
17:30 QPR (5/6/17) v Arsenal (3/4/17) - 1st (0-1) 0-1

19:00 R Madrid (5/1/16) v Valladolid (4/7/16) - 8th (2-2) 4-3
19:00 Montpellier (1/5/17) v Brest (2/6/17) - 10th (1-1) 2-1
19:00 Reims (3/8/17) v Ajaccio (3/5/17) - 24th (1-1) 1-1
19:00 Sochaux (4/3/17) v Lorient (5/5/17) - 30th (1-0) 1-0
19:00 Toulouse (4/9/17) v Lille (3/6/17) - 20th (2-1) 4-2
19:00 Troyes (2/5/17) v Evian TG (2/5/17) - 78th (0-0) 1-0
19:45 Fiorentino (4/2/17) v AS Roma (7/3/17) - 90th (0-0) 0-1


*21:00 La Coruna (4/5/16) v Atl Madrid (2/7/16) - (0-0) 0-0


Sunday
11:00 Mallorca (5/4/16) v Levante (1/5/17) - 7th (1-1) 1-1
11:30 Udinese (2/5/17) v Sampdoria (0/6/17) - 29th (1-1) 3-1

**13:00 Rennes (2/7/17) v Nice (3/3/16) BOTH - 52nd (0-0) 0-3
13:30 Liverpool (1/5/17) v Everton (7/3/17) - (0-0) 0-0

14:00 AC Milan (4/5/17) v Torino (6/7/17) 84th (0-0) 1-0
14:00 Catania (3/9/17) v Siena (3/5/17) - 14th (1-0) 3-0
**14:00 Genoa (4/2/17) v Pescara (3/6/17) - 19th (2-1) 4-1
14:00 Juventus (2/10/17) v Palermo (2/7/17) - (0-0) 1-0
14:00 Lazio (3/6/17) v Bologna (4/11/17) - 21st (4-0) 6-0
14:00 Parma (2/8/17) v Atalanta (6/6/17) - 45th (1-0) 2-0
14:30 Freiburg (2/7/15) v Augsburg (4/2/15) - 30th (1-0) 2-0

16:00 Zaragoza (3/5/16) v Vallecano (5/3/16) - 26th (1-0) 3-0
16:00 Man U (8/3/17) v Chelsea (3/3/17) - 87th (0-0) 0-1
16:00 Nancy (2/4/17) v Lyon (3/4/17) - 48th (0-0) 0-3
16:30 Hamburg (3/4/15) v Wolfsburg (5/4/15) - 45th (1-0) 1-1

*18:00 Sevilla (5/4/16) v Espanyol (3/6/16) - 11th (3-0) 3-0

19:45 Napoli (8/3/17) v Inter (5/4/17) - 3rd (2-1) 3-1

**20:00 Barcelona (3/2/16) v Betis (4/5/16) - 2nd (1-2) 4-2
*20:00 PSG (1/6/17) v Valenciennes (4/3/17) - 17th (0-1) 1-1

It may be interesting to follow the teams that are heavily favourite as the odds for an early goal is low, and see how often they have an early goal.

Football 03/05/13

stats for the weekend matches


Friday
*19:30 M'gladbach (3/4/15) v Schalke (1/4/15)
*19:30 St Etienne (4/7/16) v Bordeaux (1/8/17)
**20:00 Celta Vigo (2/6/16) v Ath Bilbao (5/2/16)


Saturday

*12:45 Birmingham (1/5/22) v Blackburn (2/6/22)
12:45 Bolton (7/8/21) v Blackpool (1/7/22)
12:45 Brighton (4/8/22) v Wolves (6/6/22)
*12:45 Burnley (3/8/23) v Ipswich (4/8/22)
12:45 Charlton (3/11/22) v Bristol City (3/8/22)
**12:45 C Palace (2/3/22) v P'boro (6/5/22)
*12:45 Derby (1/4/22) v Millwall (4/8/22)
12:45 H'field (6/8/22) v Barnsley (6/8/22) (1/4/5)
12:45 Hull (2/7/22) v Cardiff (1/6/22)
12:45 Nottingham (3/11/22)  (0/3/5) v Leicester (2/9/22)
**12:45 Shef Wed (3/6/22) v M'boro (5/6/22)
*12:45 Watford (5/7/22) v Leeds (1/12/22)
14:30 Bremen (3/6/15) v Hoffenheim (6/1/15)
*14:30 Frankfurt (3/4/15) v Dusseldorf (2/4/16)
14:30 Hannover (5/4/15) v Mainz (4/6/15)
*14:30 Nurnberg (4/4/15) v Leverkusen (3/3/15)
14:30 Stuttgart (3/5/15) v Furth (3/6/15)
*15:00 Valencia (4/3/17) v Osasuna (2/7/16)
15:00 Fulham (5/4/17) v Reading (2/6/17)
15:00 Norwich (3/6/17) v Aston Villa (7/3/17)
15:00 Swansea (4/7/17) v Man City (5/8/17)
15:00 Tottenham (5/7/17) (3/1/5) v Southampton (5/3/17)
15:00 WBA (3/6/17) v Wigan (1/9/17)
15:00 West Ham (3/3/18) v Newcastle (4/4/17)
*16:00 Marseille (0/7/16) v Bastia (3/6/17)
17:00 Granda (2/5/16) v Malaga (4/7/16) both 0-0 & 0-10
17:00 Chievo (3/6/17) v Cagliari (4/7/17)
17:30 Dortmund (5/1/15) v Bayern (1/4/15)
17:30 QPR (5/6/17) v Arsenal (3/4/17)
19:00 R Madrid (5/1/16) v Valladolid (4/7/16)
19:00 Montpellier (1/5/17) v Brest (2/6/17)
19:00 Reims (3/8/17) v Ajaccio (3/5/17)
19:00 Sochaux (4/3/17) v Lorient (5/5/17)
19:00 Toulouse (4/9/17) v Lille (3/6/17)
19:00 Troyes (2/5/17) v Evian TG (2/5/17)
19:45 Fiorentino (4/2/17) v AS Roma (7/3/17)
*21:00 La Coruna (4/5/16) v Atl Madrid (2/7/16)


Sunday
11:00 Mallorca (5/4/16) v Levante (1/5/17)
11:30 Udinese (2/5/17) v Sampdoria (0/6/17)
**13:00 Rennes (2/7/17) v Nice (3/3/16) BOTH
13:30 Liverpool (1/5/17) v Everton (7/3/17)

14:00 AC Milan (4/5/17) v Torino (6/7/17)
14:00 Catania (3/9/17) v Siena (3/5/17)
**14:00 Genoa (4/2/17) v Pescara (3/6/17)
14:00 Juventus (2/10/17) v Palermo (2/7/17)
14:00 Lazio (3/6/17) v Bologna (4/11/17)
14:00 Parma (2/8/17) v Atalanta (6/6/17)

14:30 Freiburg (2/7/15) v Augsburg (4/2/15)
16:00 Zaragoza (3/5/16) v Vallecano (5/3/16)
16:00 Man U (8/3/17) v Chelsea (3/3/17)
16:00 Nancy (2/4/17) v Lyon (3/4/17)
16:30 Hamburg (3/4/15) v Wolfsburg (5/4/15)
18:00 Sevilla (5/4/16) v Espanyol (3/6/16)
19:45 Napoli (8/3/17) v Inter (5/4/17)
20:00 Barcelona (3/2/16) v Betis (4/5/16)
20:00 PSG (1/6/17) v Valenciennes (4/3/17)

Football 26/04/13

Friday 26/04/13
19:30
Lille (5/4/16) v Sochaux (1/6/16)
**G Furth (5/4/15) v Hannover (5/2/15) - Lay 0-0 HT

19:45
Leicester (9/6/22) v Watford (3/3/22)

20:00
*Vallecano (4/5/16) v Osasuna (1/7/15) - Lay 0-10 FG


Saturday 27/04/13
12:45
Man City (2/4/16) v West Ham (5/5/17)

14:30
Augsburg (5/4/15) v Stuttgart (4/4/15)
*B Leverkusen (3/1/15) v Bremen (6/2/15) - Lay 0-0 HT
B Munich (4/1/15) v Freiburg (3/5/15)
Hoffenheim (4/3/15) v Nuremberg (2/6/15)
Wolfsburg (3/1/15) v Bor M’Gladbach (4/5/15)

15:00
Everton (4/4/17) v Fulham (5/6/17)
Southampton (3/5/17) v WBA (2/4/16)
Stoke (4/6/17) v Norwich (1/5/17)
Wigan (6/3/16) v Tottenham (3/5/16)
Barnsley (6/4/22) v Hull (6/9/23)
Blackburn (4/8/22) v C Palace (5/9/20)
Blackpool (3/9/22) v Derby (4/6/23)
Bristol City (6/4/22) v H’field (4/5/22)
C’diff (5/8/22) v Bolton (6/5/22)
Ipswich (2/7/22) v Birmingham (2/4/22)
Leeds (2/10/22) v Brighton (4/8/22)
*M’boro (1/8/22) v Charlton (3/8/22) - Lay 0-10 FG
Millwall (4/6/22) v N Forest (2/8/22)
Wolves (3/4/22) v Burnley (7/6/22)
Levante (3/3/15) v Celta de Vigo (2/5/16)

16:00
*Lorient (4/0/16) v Marseille (0/9/17) - Lay 0-10 FG

17:00
Newcastle (4/5/17) v Liverpool (7/2/17)
Atalanta (4/5/16) v Bologna (4/10/16)
*Cagliari (1/8/16) v Udinese (2/3/15) - Lay 0-10 FG
Ath Bilbao (2/6/16) v Barcelona (3/1/16)

17:20
P’boro (6/6/22) v Sheff Wed (4/7/22)

17:30
**Dusseldorf (4/3/15) v B Dortmund (5/2/15) - Lay 0-0 HT

19:00
Ajaccio (3/7/16) v Montpellier (0/3/16)
Bastia (3/4/16) v Toulouse (1/7/16)
*Bordeaux (0/8/16) v Reims (3/3/16) - Lay 0-10 FG
Brest (2/2/16) v Rennes (4/3/16)
Valenciennes (5/4/16) v Nancy (5/4/16)
Atl Madrid (3/3/16) v Real Madrid (6/3/16)

19:45
*Pescara (5/6/16) v Napoli (2/6/16) - Lay 0-10 FG

21:00
*Real Zaragoza (3/5/15) v Mallorca (3/6/16) - Lay 0-10 FG

Sunday 28/04/13
11:00
*Espanyol (2/2/16) v Granada (3/6/16) - Lay 0-10 FG

13:00
*Lyon (2/7/16) v St Etiennes (3/5/16) - Lay 0-10 FG

13:30
*Reading (4/4/17) v QPR (3/6/17) - Lay 0-10 FG

14:00
Cheivo (3/5/16) v Genoa (0/10/15) 
Palermo (2/7/17) v Inter Milan (4/4/16)
Roma (4/2/16) v Siena (3/5/16)
*Sampdoria (1/7/16) v Fiorentino (2/3/16) - Lay 0-10 FG
Torino (2/7/16) v Juventus (5/6/16)

14:30
Mainz (5/6/15) v Frankfurt (4/2/15)

15:00
*Chelsea (3/4/16) v Swansea (1/9/16) - Lay 0-10 FG

16:00
Arsenal (3/5/18) v Man Utd (4/4/17)
*Nice (1/7/17) v Troyes (2/6/15) - Lay 0-10 FG
Malaga (3/5/16) v Getafe (3/6/16)
16:30
*Schalke (0/5/15) v Hamburg (2/5/15) - Lay 0-10

18:00
*Valladolid (4/3/16) v Sevilla (1/4/16) - 

19:45
AC Milan (4/5/16) v Catania (4/5/17)

20:00
Evian (3/3/16) v PSG (4/7/16)
*Real Sociedad (1/8/16) v Valencia (6/4/15)

Monday 29/04/13
19:45
*Parma (2/7/16) v Lazio (4/3/16)

20:00
*Aston Villa (2/8/17) v Sunderland (5/2/17)

21:00
**Real Betis (8/2/16) v Deportivo (2/0/16) Lay 0-0 HT

Saturday Football 20/04/13

My bets for the day, I have noticed that the German Bundesliga is an interesting league to bet.

12:30
Huddersfield v Millwall - 37th (1-0)
I thought this may have an early goal so avoided this one as Huddersfield has had an early goal in 6 out of 21. I also avoided laying 0-0 at HT due to both teams having a high percentage chance of it finishing 0-0 at HT (around 33%)

12:45
Burnley v Cardiff - 27th
Cardiff scored the first goal in the 27th minute, so won the 0-10 FG. I decided to bet over 1.5 at 1.2, as I hope Cardiff win and get win the Championship.

14:30
B Leverkusen v Hoffenheim - 16th (2-0) 5-0
Dortmund v Mainz - 1st (1-0) 2-0
Frankfurt v Schalke - 41st (1-0) 1-0
For some silly reason, I decided to lay 1-0 at half-time instead of the usual 0-0 for the Dortmund match, so after scoring in the 1st minute, I did hope that another goal would have been scored. I did, however bet under 1.5 at 23/1.

15:00
QPR v Stoke - 42nd (0-1) 0-2
Birmingham v Leeds - 71st (0-0) 1-0
I placed a bet for 0-10 FG for Birmingham game as I thought that it would be 0-0 at half-time. I did consider betting on a goal in second half as Leeds tend to have goals in the second half compared to the first half.

16:00
Marseille v Brest - 45th (1-0) 1-0
This was the only game played, and both teams had a high chance of being 0-0 at half-time so decided to lay 0-10 FG.

17:00
Genoa v Atalanta - 6th (1-1) 1-1
Real Madrid v Betis - 45th (1-0) 3-1
Luckily I picked Real Madrid, and I wanted to lay the 0-0 at HT, but the odds were around 1.2, so I chose the 0-10 FG. I didn't pick the Genoa match as Atalanta had a high number of games (6/16) that had a goal in the first 10 minute. I also decided to lay the both teams to score, and luckily got out before Betis scored. I didn't win much for that.

17:30
Bremen v Wolfsburg - 13th (0-2) 0-3
I did not highlight this match to bet, but I won a few games, so I decided to lay both teams to score (BTS) @ 2.4 in the 10th minute, which then produced a goal, and the odds went to 5.3, so if I waited for a few more minutes I would have better odds! Luckily Werder Bremen never scored, but I got out in the second half so didn't win much again. I was only aiming to win 20% of my stake.

19:00
Barcelona v Levante - 84th (0-0) 1-0
I did not realise that Barcelona was playing so did a bet on laying 0-0 at half-time. I really shouldn't have done this, as it was not in my notes. I lost.
I did look at the stats for Barcelona and noticed that if no goals were scored up to 50th minute, Barcelona tended to score the first goal in the 80-90th minute, so I should placed a wager in the 78th minute for a goal. Again, I was not confident in picking this.

19:45
Alkmaar v  PSV - 36th (0-1) 1-3
Udinese v Lazio - 19th (1-0) 1-0
I chose to lay 0-10 FG as Udinese was involved in only 2 out of 15 matches that had an early goal.

I decided to pick the PSV match for over 1.5 goals in the second half at 1.15, even though this is a league I do not really look at, but I am looking at 0-0 at half-time for these games (the top teams in the weak leagues). the odds was pretty good as I looked at the odds in the 30th minute, but chose against it as I thought that it may end goalless, but a goal was scored. I am trying to be strict on picking matches.

21:00
Valencia v Malaga - 25th (4-1)
I did not bet but would have layed the 0-10 FG, but forgot,

Profit for 20/04/13

I did not really make much today, but I am still experimenting, but I appear to be betting on this different events. I really need to just lay the 0-10 FG and 0-0 HT. I am not sure why I am doing this, as I cannot work out how profitable it is if I continue betting different areas...

Sunday, I will try and follow this rule, but I may play the over goal market in the second half if the odds are good.

Friday football - 19/04/13

There were not many games of interest to bet on, so I only ended up placing three bets.

19:00
Ajax v Heerenveen - 29th (1-0) 1-1
I wanted to lay 0-0 at HT but the odds were the same as laying 0-10 min first goal (FG), so I went decided to lay 0-10 FG at 1.30, and luckily the first goal was scored in the 29th minute. With hindsight, I should have layed 0-0 at HT once I won my bet as the odds dropped to a reasonable odd, but I fought against it as I am trying to only bet 0-10 FG.

19:30
M'Gladbach v Augsburg - 29th (1-0) 1-0
Montpellier v Lyon - 29th (1-1) 1-2
After looking at the stats I decided to pick the French match as Montpellier only had 1 game out of 16 that had a goal inside the first 10 minute. Luckily both games had a scored but in the 29th minute (same as Ajax game). Again, if I was daring I could have layed the 0-0 HT score, but chose against it.

19:45
Hull v Bristol City (0-0) 0-0
The good thing about laying 0-10 FG is that after 10 minutes you know you have won or lost, so I placed a bet on Hull match. Again, I won but on this occasion I would have lost if I decided to lay the 0-0 HT score.

20:00
Mallorca v Vallecano - 7th (1-1) 1-1
Luckily I missed this game as I didn't realise there was a La Liga match playing, and this had a goal inside the first ten minutes, so I would have lost.

Profit for 19/04/13 on Betfair

I am still testing this strategy out, as my win/loss is 68 wins and 17 losses (80% win rate), so still ironing out the bugs. Saturday and Sunday matches will be interesting, as the games are spread out over the day. If I do well I may post, if I lose I will more than likely avoid posting.

Football 16/04/13 - Result

I didn't have a good day, but I still feel laying the first goal in 0-10 minutes is worthy of betting over the goal strategy.


Lay 0-10 FG
**Bristol City (6/4/21) v Birmingham (2/4/21) WON
*Middlesbrough (1/8/21) v Not Forest (2/8/21) WON

Lay 0-0 HT
Barnsley (6/3/21) v Derby (4/5/22) LOST
Millwall (4/5/19) v Watford (3/2/21) LOST

Both Teams To Score
Wolves v Hull @ 1.86  LOST
Leicester v Bolton @ 1.76 WON

Over 1.5 goals
Barnsley v Derby @ 1.36 WON
P'boro v Brighton @ 1.28 LOST

Football 16/04/13

I picked a few games for tonight and will hopefully get the majority right (or not). This is still experimental for now as I lost badly yesterday, although there were hardly any games so I betted on games I was likely to lose.
Note to self: learn self control.

Lay 0-10 FG
**Bristol City (6/4/21) v Birmingham (2/4/21)
*Middlesbrough (1/8/21) v Not Forest (2/8/21)

Lay 0-0 HT
Barnsley (6/3/21) v Derby (4/5/22)
Millwall (4/5/19) v Watford (3/2/21)

Both Teams To Score
Wolves v Hull @ 1.86
Leicester v Bolton @ 1.76

Over 1.5 goals
Barnsley v Derby @ 1.36
P'boro v Brighton @ 1.28


Blackburn (4/8/21) v Huddersfield (4/5/21)
Cardiff (5/7/21) v Charlton (3/7/21)
Blackpool (3/6/21) v Sheff Wed (4/6/21)
Ipswich (2/7/21) v C Palace (5/9/19)

Leeds (2/9/21) v Burnley (7/5/21)
Leicester (8/6/21) v Bolton (5/5/21)

P'boro (6/5/21) v Brighton(3/7/21)
Wolves (3/3/21) v Hull (6/8/22)

Arsenal (3/5/17) v Everton (7/2/15)

Football 14/04/13 - Result

Lay 0-0 HT

Vallecano (3/5/15) v Real Sociedad (5/3/14)  5th (0-2) 0-2 WON
Palermo (1/7/16) v Bologna (3/9/15) 4th (1-1) 1-1 LOST 0-10 FG

Stoke (3/6/16) v Man Utd (3/4/15) 4th (0-1) 0-2 WON

Atl Madrid (2/3/15) v Granada (2/6/15) 5th (2-0) 5-0 LOST 0-10 FG

Lyon (1/7/15) v Toulouse (0/7/14) 8th (1-1) 3-1 LOST 0-10 FG

Ath Bilbao (1/6/15) v Real Madrid (5/3/15) 2nd (0-1) 0-3 WON

Lay 0-10 minute first goal

Nice (1/6/16) v Sochaux (1/5/15) 51st (0-0) 3-0 WON

Cagliari (1/7/15) v Inter (4/3/15) 63rd (0-0) 2-0
Chievo (3/3/15) v Catania (4/4/15)  (0-0) 0-0

Lille (5/3/15) v Marseille (0/9/15) (0-0) 0-0 WON

Both events

**Newcastle (4/5/16) v Sunderland (5/3/16) 27th (0-1) 0-3

**Genoa (3/1/15) v Sampdoria (0/5/15) 28th (0-1) 1-1 WON
**Parma (2/7/15) v Udinese (2/3/15) 12th (0-2) 0-3 WON
**Torino (2/7/15) v AS Roma (7/3/16) 22nd (1-1) 1-2

**Stuttgart (3/5/13) v M'gladbach (4/5/14) 28th (2-0) 2-0 WON
**Augsburg (5/4/14) v Frankfurt (4/2/14)  27th (1-0) 2-0 WON

**Zaragoza (3/5/14) v Barcelona (3/1/15) 20th (0-2) 0-3 WON
**AC Milan (4/4/15) v Napoli (2/6/15) 30 (1-1) 1-1 WON

I picked 14 matches and won 11 with 3 losses.

Out ot the 18 matches, there were 14 games which would have won for laying 0-0 at half-time, and 12 games to win laying 0-10 first goal scored.

Interestingly, the odds for 0-10 first goal is around 5, and the odds for 0-0 at half-time is 3.5, so I would have expected less games to have a goal within the first 10 minutes.

The percentage of laying 0-10 FG is 66%, and 77% for laying 0-0 at HT.

If you placed a bet on the first goal being scored in 0-10 minutes with the odds being around 5.0 with a £10 stake, 6 wins would have netted you £300, with the remaing 12 losing bets totalling £120, so overall would have gained £180.00 - which is a 60% profit.

I will look again next week, and see how often the first goal scored in 10 minutes and 0-0 at half-time occur, to see which is better - Laying or betting.

Football 14/04/13

My tips for today's matches, although I am not going to bet on all, so always research your bets. I will probably get the majority wrong, so this is really research at present.

I do bet but I tend to prefer betting on matches where there are a number of games played at the same time, so the 2pm kick off may be the only game I will pick.

I am only putting this on here, so I can see how many I get right, and whether I would be profitable if I betted on all the events.


11:00
Vallecano (3/5/15) v Real Sociedad (5/3/14) Lay 0-0 HT


11:30
Palermo (1/7/16) v Bologna (3/9/15) Lay 0-10


12:00
Newcastle (4/5/16) v Sunderland (5/3/16)

13:00
Nice (1/6/16) v Sochaux (1/5/15) Lay 0-10

14:00
Cagliari (1/7/15) v Inter (4/3/15)
Chievo (3/3/15) v Catania (4/4/15)
Genoa (3/1/15) v Sampdoria (0/5/15) Lay 0-10
Parma (2/7/15) v Udinese (2/3/15) Lay 0-10
Torino (2/7/15) v AS Roma (7/3/16)

14:05
Stoke (3/6/16) v Man Utd (3/4/15) Lay 0-0 HT


14:30
Stuttgart (3/5/13) v M'gladbach (4/5/14) Lay 0-10

16:00
Atl Madrid (2/3/15) v Granada (2/6/15) Lay 0-10
Lyon (1/7/15) v Toulouse (0/7/14) Lay 0-10

16:30
Augsburg (5/4/14) v Frankfurt (4/2/14) Lay 0-0 HT

18:00
Zaragoza (3/5/14) v Barcelona (3/1/15) Lay 0-0 HT

19:45
AC Milan (4/4/15) v Napoli (2/6/15) Lay 0-10

20:00
Ath Bilbao (1/6/15) v Real Madrid (5/3/15) Lay 0-0 HT
Lille (5/3/15)  v Marseille (0/9/15) Lay 0-10


Key: (no of times match had a goal in 0-10 min / no of times of 0-0 at HT / total game played)

Football 13/04/13

The results for Saturday games that I was looking at only


12:45 Kick off
**Leeds v Sheff Wed (2/9/20, 4/6/20) 27th (0-1) 2-1


14.30 kick off
Bayern v Nurnberg (3/1/14, 1/5/14) Lay 0-10 7th (3-0) 4-0
Dusseldorf v Bremen (3/2/14, 5/2/14) Lay 0-0 HT 2nd (1-1) 2-2
**Furth v Dortmund (5/4/14, 5/2/14) 13th (0-5) 1-6
Mainz v Hamburg (5/4/14, 2/3/14) 61st (0-0) 1-2
**Wolfsburg v Hoffenheim (3/1/14, 6/1/13) Lay 0-0 HT @3.25 14th (1-1) 2-2


15:00 kick off
Arsenal v Norwich (3/4/16, 1/4/16) Lay 0-10 56th (0-0) 3-1
Aston Villa v Fulham (2/7/16, 5/5/16) 55th (0-0) 1-1
**Everton v QPR (4/4/16, 3/6/16) Lay 0-10 min 40th (1-0) 2-0
Reading v Liverpool (4/3/16, 7/1/16) Lay 0-0 HT (0-0) 0-0
Southampton v West Ham (3/4/16, 5/4/16) Lay 0-0 HT 59th (0-0) 1-1


Barnsley v Charlton (5/3/20, 2/7/20) 5th (0-2) 0-6
Blackburn v Derby (3/8/20, 3/5/20) 9th (2-0) 2-0
Backpool v Burnley (3/7/20, 7/4/20) 58th (0-0) 1-0
Bristol City v Bolton (5/4/20, 4/5/20) 3rd (0-1) 1-2
**Cardiff v Nottingham (5/7/20, 2/8/20) 26th (1-0) 3-0
**Ipswich v Hull (2/7/20,6/8/21) 28th (0-1) 1-2
Middlesbrough v Brighton (1/7/20, 4/6/20) 60th (0-0) 0-2
**Peterborough v Watford (6/5/20, 3/2/20) 29th (1-0) 3-2
Wolves v Huddersfield (2/3/20, 3/5/20) 4th (1-1) 1-3

**Valladolid v Getafe (4/3/15, 3/6/15) 45th (0-1) 2-1


17:00
**Pescara v Siena (5/6/15, 3/5/15) 14th (0-2) 2-3

**Levante v La Coruna (3/3/14, 2/0/15) 12th (0-3) 0-4


17:30 kick off
**Schalke v Leverkusen Lay (0/5/14, 3/3/14) 39th (0-1) 2-2


19:00
**Espanyol v Valencia (2/2/15, 7/4/14) 45th (1-0) 3-3

Ajaccio v Nancy 5th (1-1) 1-1
**Bordeaux v Montpellier 11th (3-1) 4-2
**Brest v Reims 28th (0-1) 0-2
Evian TG v Rennes 2nd (2-1) 4-2
**Lorient v Bastia 45th (1-0) 4-1


19:45
Atalanta v Fiorentino (4/4/15, 2/2/15) 61st (0-0) 0-2


21:00
Malaga v Osasuna (3/4/15, 1/6/14) 90th (0-0) 1-0

I had 10 wins from 12 which recovered my two days losses, so the system of betting on 0-10 first goal and 0-0 at half-time appears to be beneficial than the over 0.5 goal which starts as low as 1.04 - 1.08 on some games.

Football 08/04/13 result

From the three games played, 1 out of 3 had a goal within 10 minutes, and 1 out of 3 was still 0-0 at half-time. None of the games finished goalless and had a goal in the second half, so if I placed a bet for one or more goals in the second half, I would have won. I would have picked the Man U game as that was 0-0 at the time.

Man Utd v Man City (0-0) 1-2 - 51st 
Roma v Lazio (0-1) 1-1 - 16th
Sevilla v Ath Bilbao (1-0) 2-1 - 4th

Monday Football 08/04/13

Not many interesting games on that I am willing to bet on.

So debating whether to bet for the sake of it, or have a look and pick one (or all). If no goals are scored in the first 10 minutes then I will win 60% of the stake. But if one (or even two) get a goal in the first 10 minutes I will lose around 50%, and more if two or more loses.

Lay 0-10 minute first goal

Man Utd v Man City - lay odds 5.1

Roma v Lazio - Lay odds 5.2

Sevilla v Ath Bilbao - Lay odds 5.0

I am not sure, but I will take a look at the frequency and make my choice later.
Man Utd have scored 7 times out 15, but Man City has had 7 0-0 score at half-time. Either way, I do not know what to pick. It could be 0-0 or an early goal may be possible.


Lay 0-0 at half-time

Man Utd v Man City - lay odds 3.5

Roma v Lazio - Lay odds 3.5

Sevilla v Ath Bilbao - Lay odds 3.75

If you have a feeling that there will be an early goal, then laying a bet on 0-0 at halftime is also a good bet. All the games could have an early goal, so one of these should happen, and in some case both result will be possible.

This is why this strategy is more intriguing than the over 0.5 goal strategy, where a 0-0 result will be bad, but in the laying of 0-10 first goal, it is a winning bet.

Europa League 04/04/13 - Result

None of the teams managed a goal in the first 10 minutes, so I won my bet irrespective of which match I would have picked for the lay 0-10 minute first goal market.
I picked the Newcastle match, and they were the match that was involved with the first goal scored in the 12th minute. Luckily it was scored after 10 minutes

Results of the Europa matches played on the 4th April 2013.

Tottenham v FC Basel (1-2) 2-2 first goal scored in 30th minute
Benfica v Newcastle (1-1) 3-1 first goal scored in 12th minute
Chelsea v Rubin Kazan (2-1) 3-1 first goal scored in 16th minute
Fenerbahce v Lazio (0-0) 2-0 first goal scored in 79th minute

All the matches had a goal in the second half, so if I placed a bet for over 0.5 goal at the beginning of the second half or at any time in the first half, I would have won.

I would have picked the Tottenham game (they were losing 2-1 at half-time), but the odds for over 3.5 goals was 1.18 (on Betfair) at that time, so decided against it, especially as I have lost a few games previously.

Only one match was 0-0 at half-time (Fenerbahce v Lazio), so I would have had a good chance of winning had I decided to play this one as well (odds were a lot better than the 0-10 goal market). I would have gone for the Chelsea or Tottenham match if I had a choice, as I thought the Newcastle and Lazio matches may be low scoring and be 0-0 at half-time.

Europa League 04/04/13 - Two strategies 0-0 at HT and 0-10 first goal scored

I am looking at two strategies which I did terrible on over Easter Sunday, but I am slightly bored of the over goal market, so fancy trying this.

I will pick one match, but unsure which to go for. The odds for half-time is a lot better, but laying for the first goal not to be scored in the first 10 minutes of the game will be short lived, and I will know whether I win or not in a matter of minutes.

Obviously, if I pick the 0-10 minutes, then if I win, I can decide on over 0.5 goals market on any matches that appear to have goals. Tottenham will be my favourite to pick if Bale is playing, with Chelsea next.
Newcastle have been rather tight in the Europa, so could win (or lose) by one goal.

Lay 0-10 minutes first goal scored
The odds to lay that the first goal is not scored in the first 10 minutes of the match

Tottenham v FC Basel @ 4.9
Benfica v Newcastle @ 5.6
Chelsea v Rubin Kazan @ 5.7
Fenerbahce v Lazio @ 6.0

Lay 0-0 at Half-time

Tottenham v FC Basel @ 3.65
Benfica v Newcastle @ 3.15
Chelsea v Rubin Kazan @ 3
Fenerbahce v Lazio @ 2.8

Odds taken from Betfair website on 04/04/13 at 12:35pm. (odds may have changed)

I will follow this up with the result and the time the first goal was scored in each match, and may provide the match I picked, but if I lose, I may keep that quiet.

Also, I was considering laying the favourite to win the match: Tottenham (1.52), FC Basel (1.51) and Chelsea (1.59) as I do not believe they will all win, as I do think there will be a draw or surprise result - normally the case.

A Bad day (again)

Well, I tried a few new strategies, but should have really experimented before using actual money during the trial period, or started with a smaller amount (like £2)!

Anyway, I tried the two new strategies as they offered better odds, and I found out why the odds were better.

First strategy was placing a lay bet on the goal being scored in 0-10 minutes of the game. This offered protection against the 0-0 result, and when placed bets on over 0.5 goals, I tended to pick a few games that ended 0-0 at half time. So, I did a few bets on the Easter Sunday, and low and behold, every bet I placed had a goal in the 0-10th minute and lost 4 out 6 games, and I was aiming for 1 out of 6 losses!!! Bad choice, and will consider this strategy at a later date, after following the results a bit longer.

The second strategy I was looking at is laying 0-0 at half-time. Odds are around 1.3, which I won 50% (only two games picked), but it is more risky as I am betting for a half time result, and the result are normally 0-0, but a good bet if you think a game will have an early goal in the first 10 minutes, especially as odds are 1.06 for over 0.5 goals at beginning of the matches (on average).

7 days...

I have recovered my loss of three games last weekend with a high number of bets placed on Good Friday, with only one failing (£2 loss so not that bad and did not really affect my profit).

From 23/03/13 - 29/03/13

I am now going to look at another strategy which may mix with the over goal market, and play both together, but we will see.

There were only two games I placed which I moved away from the over goals market, mainly the Both Teams to Score (BTS) with Leicester v Millwall. I was only going to bet on the other Championship game being played at the same time Derby v Bristol City as I thought that would be more likely to have goals. With Leicester having a man sent off in the 4th minute, I decided to bet that BTS would not happen, as Leicester with a man down, may just play defensive for the remainder of the game. A goal was scored in the 80th minute, so I was right (in this case).

The Scunthorpe game, I just bet on this in the 80th minute (odds at 1.16) and they were leading 2-1, so I just took a chance - no idea why I picked this, but I was looking at the League One games 

Also, I have done a few bets on under 4.5 goals at the beginning of the match, but I don't think I will continue with this, as I cannot bet throughout the game in case they lose, and the odds are poor, when I get bet over 0.5 and get about the same odds, and also bet on other matches once it happens.

My loss after my win

Well, I guess I wrote too soon, I ended up losing three bets over the weekend

From 23/03/13 - 27/03/13

I am currently down £35.50 from the date I lost my first bet.
The previous profit will be ignored, and I will start from this to see how long I take to recover my loss, and also, to see whether I can end up with a profit if I win a number of games in a row.

I will try and play safe, by betting at the beginning of the match rather than at Half-time when the odds are better to give me more chance to win consecutively.

So, will post the profit from 23rd March until my loss is cleared.

Betfair profit

I have been playing over/under goals for the last month and I have been rather profitable on this strategy

screen shot of my P&L for the last 30 days from Betfair

Although I do not win much (average win £5), it is profitable as I have won the last 28 matches and it all adds up.

I have actually recouped my losses from the first half of the season, but this strategy of betting on over 0.5 goals is good, as you do not find many games finishing 0-0 - unless you are unlucky.

Again, I always recommend that you research games you bet on, and never rely on anyone else's tip.

Football 16/02/13

I decided to bet on Both Teams to Score and only pick games in the Championship. As long as I get one line right, I get my money back


Bet 1
Birmingham v Watford
Crystal Palace v Middlesbrough
Derby v Wolves
Hull v Charlton

Bet 2
Cardiff v Bristol C
C Pal v BORO
Hull v Charlton
Ips v B’pool

Bet 3
C.Pal v BORO
Derby v Wolves
Ips v B’pool
N For v Bolton

Bet 4
Cardiff v Bris C
Der v Wol
Ips v B’pool
N For v Bolton

Bet 5
Birm v Watford
C’diff v Bri C
Der v Wol
Ips v B’pool

Championship Table

Wow, wow, wow, I was not expecting that Cardiff will be still top.

Table correct as of 21/01/13

Unfortunately Middlesbrough has fallen away from second spot, but I am hopeful that the two make it up to the Premiership together.

There is still plenty of games to go, so we will see whether any surprise team hits form at the right time (there is always one).