Football 29/12/12

Both Teams to Score
Stoke v Southampton
Cardiff v Millwall
Wolves v Ipswich
Bristol City v Peterborough
Middlesbrough v Blackpool
Oldham v Crewe
Portsmouth v Yeovil
Aldershot v Bristol Rovers
Plymouth v Torquay

Half with most Goals
Arsenal v Newcastle (first half most goals)
Norwich v Man City (First half most goals)
Fulham v Swansea (Second Half most goals)
Reading v West Ham ( First Half most goals)
Aston Villa v Wigan (Second Half most goals)

Half Time / Full Time Result
Arsenal v Newcastle (D/H) @ 4.8
Man Utd v WBA (H/H) @ 1.89
Nottm Forest v C Palace (D/H) @ 6.2
Hull v Leeds (D/H) @ 5.3
Middlesbrough v Blackpool (D/H) @ 6.4
Cardiff v Millwall (D/H) @ 5.3

Football 26/12/12

Both Teams to score
Huddersfield v Blackpool @ 1.57
Burnley v Derby @ 1.61
Barnsley v Birmingham @ 1.72
Middlesbrough v Blackburn @ 1.65
Bristol City v Watford @ 1.53

Just randomly picked 5 games in the Championship and see whether I have more chance getting the result right!

Championship Table 21/12/12

Woo hoo, Cardiff are top over Christmas. But can they stay there until the end of the season?

I hope so, but their away form needs to improve in the new year.

I wonder who the surprise team will be that will hit form, and quickly rise up the table. Its anyone guess, but did believe Blackpool will do a lot better than their current performance

Football 08/12/12

A quick prediction for today's matches (even or above odds). Highly likely to get the majority wrong, but we will see.

Aston Villa v Stoke draw @ 3.2
Wigan v QPR home win @ 2.3

Peterborough v Middlesbrough away win @ 2.00
C Palace v Blackpool home win @ 2.1
Watford v Hull away win @ 3.2
Ipswich v Milwall away win @ 2.62
Wolves v Birmingham draw @ 3.3

* odds taken from Coral website

Football 01/12/12

I am considering picking 5 teams and betting doubles (10 bets) from the below games

QPR v Aston Villa (Draw @ 3.4)

WBA v Stoke (Home @ 2.0)

C Palace v Brighton (HW @ 2.5)

Millwall v Charlton (HW @ 2.05)

Nottm Forest v Hull (AW @ 3.1)

P'boro v Blackpool (AW @ 2.3)

Again, I pick games with over even chance so that I need to get 3 out of 5 games right to profit.

Both Teams to Score

Arsenal v Swansea

Reading v Man Utd

Liverpool v Southampton

Bristol City v Wolves

Millwall v Charlton

Leicester v Derby

Cardiff v Sheff Wed

Football 28/11/12

Not many games are being played tonight, so this is just a few I have wagered on

Both Team to score
Man Utd v West Ham
Wigan v Man City
Everton v Arsenal
Tottenham v Liverpool

Blackburn v Bolton



Predictions
Southampton v Norwich (DRAW)
Stoke v Newcastle (HOME)
Swansea v WBA (AWAY)

Football 24/11/12

Both Team to score

Wigan v Reading
Southampton v Newcastle

Barnsley v Cardiff
Blackpool v Watford
Hull v Burnley
Wolves v Nott Forest

Results
Stoke v Fulham (Draw) @ 12/5
Chelsea v Man City (Draw) @ 5/2

Charlton v Huddersfield (Away) @ 12/5
Hull v Burnley (Home) @ 8/11
Leeds v C Palace (Away) @ 11/8

Bury v Bournemouth (away) @ 11/10
Doncaster v Scunthorpe (home) @ Evens
Notts County v Swindon (away) @ 6/4
Stevenage v Tranmere (away) @ 7/4

Accrington v Gillingham (away) @ 10/11
Cheltenham v Barnet (home) @ 4/6

I am now playing with the strategy of choosing five games with the odds over even and betting on doubles (10 bets), and I win if I get three result correct, so if I get 4 or 5 then my winnings increase, but we will see whether this is more fun/interesting.

Football 03/11/12

I have gone for a few BTS prediction

Swansea v Chelsea
WBA v Southampton

Bolton v Cardiff
Charlton v Middlesbrough
C Palace v Blackburn
Hull v Barnsley
Nott Forest v Millwall
Sheff Wed v Peterborough

0-0 at Halftime
Tottenham v Wigan
Huddersfield v Bristol City
Not Forest v Millwall
Watford v Leicester

Football - 20/10/12 - RESULTS

Both Teams to Score

Liverpool v Reading (1-0) 1-0
Norwich v Arsenal (1-0) 1-0
WBA v Man City (0-0) 1-2
West Ham v Southampton (0-0) 4-1

Brighton v Middlesborough (0-1) 0-1
C Palace v Millwall (2-1) 2-2
Derby v Blackburn (0-1) 1-1
Hull v Ipswich (0-1) 2-1

Coventry v Notts County (0-1) 1-2
Bournemouth v Tranmere (0-1) 3-1
Hartlepool v Crawley (0-1) 0-1
Yeovil v Bury (1-0) 2-1
Portsmouth v Shrewsbury (0-0) 3-1

Plymouth v Rochdale (2-0) 3-1
York v Dag & Red (2-1) 3-2

My picks
Tottenham v CHELSEA (AW) 2.62 (0-1) 2-4 - WON
QPR v EVERTON (AW) 2.25 (1-1) 1-1
Nott Forest v CARDIFF (AW) 2.80 (2-0) 3-1
WATFORD v P'boro (HW) 1.83 (0-0) 1-0 - WON
Bournemouth v Tranmere (AW) 2.80 (0-1) 3-1
Yeovil v Bury (HW) 2.20 (1-0) 2-1 - WON
Gillingham v Burton Albion (HW) 1.73 (2-0) 4-1 WON

Football - 20/10/12

My prediction and these were picked a few days ago, and I haven't had the time to publish it until this morning, so the Friday games have passed.
I should have avoided Barnet considering they have a new manager - they will probably win the majority of games due to his expertise.

Both Teams to Score

Liverpool v Reading
Norwich v Arsenal
WBA v Man City
West Ham v Southampton

Sheff Wed v Leeds (1-0) 1-1 - ALREADY PLAYED FRIDAY
Brighton v Middlesborough
C Palace v Millwall
Derby v Blackburn
Hull v Ipswich

Coventry v Notts County
Bournemouth v Tranmere
Hartlepool v Crawley
Yeovil v Bury
Portsmouth v Shrewsbury

Plymouth v Rochdale
Barnet v Northampton
York v Dag & Red

My picks
Tottenham v CHELSEA (AW) 2.62
QPR v EVERTON (AW) 2.25
Nott Forest v CARDIFF (AW) 2.80
WATFORD v P'boro (HW) 1.83
Bournemouth v Tranmere (AW) 2.80
Yeovil v Bury (HW) 2.20
Gillingham v Burton Albion (HW) 1.73
Barnet v Northampton (AW) 2.25 (0-0) 4-0 - ALREADY PLAYED FRIDAY

Football 13/10/12 - RESULT

Results 

Draws

Bournemouth v Leyton Orient (0-0) 2-0
Carlisle v Notts County (0-2) 0-4
Colchester v Stevenage (0-0) 1-0
Scunthorpe v Brentford (0-1) 1-1 - WIN
AFC Wimbledon v Cheltenham (0-1) 1-2
Chesterfield v Dag & Red (0-1) 1-2

Both teams to score
Bournemouth v Leyton Orient (0-0) 2-0
Carlisle v Notts County (0-2) 0-4
Colchester v Stevenage (0-0) 1-0
Bradford v York (0-1) 1-4 - WIN
Northampton v Exeter (2-0) 3-0
Torquay v Accrington (1-0) 3-1 - WIN

Picks
Tranmere v Yeovil - HW (1-2) 3-2 WIN
Crawley Town v Bury - HW (1-0) 3-2 WIN
Gillingham v Aldershot - HW (3-0) 4-0 WIN
Barnet v Plymouth - AW (1-2) 1-4 WIN

Well, I did poorly again, but had 4 out of 4 in the results prediction.
 

Football 13/10/12

My picks for the weekend

Draws
Bournemouth v Leyton Orient
Carlisle v Notts County
Colchester v Stevenage
Scunthorpe v Brentford
AFC Wimbledon v Cheltenham
Chesterfield v Dag & Red

Both teams to score
Bournemouth v Leyton Orient
Carlisle v Notts County
Colchester v Stevenage
Bradford v York
Northampton v Exeter
Torquay v Accrington

Picks
Tranmere v Yeovil - HW
Crawley Town v Bury - HW
Gillingham v Aldershot - HW
Barnet v Plymouth - AW

Football - 06/10/12 - RESULTS

The result and I did poorly. I think I picked all the games that did not have both teams to score! That is how bad I did.

The only good point is that Man City lead 1-0 at Half-time; Crystal Palace had two or more goals in second half; and Peterborough was 0-0 at half-time.

 

 

BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

 

Premiership
Man City v Sunderland (normally 1-0 at HT) - (1-0) 3-0
Liverpool v Stoke (0-0) 0-0
Newcastle v Man Utd (0-2) 0-3
Southampton v Fulham (1-0) 2-2
Tottenham v Aston Villa (0-0) 2-0

Championship

Blackpool v Charlton (0-0) 0-2
* C Palace v Burnley (2 goals in sec half) - (1-2) 4-3
*Derby v Brighton (0-0) 0-0
Leeds v Barnsley (1-0) 1-0
Peterborough v Nott Forest (0-0 at HT) - (0-0) 0-1
Sheff Wed v Hull   (0-0) 0-1

League One

*Coventry v Bournemouth (0-0) 1-0

*Doncaster v Shrewsbury (1-0) 1-0
Notts County v Tranmere (0-1) 0-1
Oldham v Preston (1-0) 3-1
*Stevenage v Scunthorpe (0-0) 1-0

Bundesliga
Hannover 96 v Borussia Dortmund (0-1) 1-1
Borussia M'Gladbach v Eintracht Frankfurt (2-0) 2-0
Ausburg v Werder Bremen (2-1) 3-1

Oh well, better luck next time.

Table

Amazingly, we have Cardiff top of the Championship, although it is still early. I am bit doubtful that they will hold first spot.

 

I thought that Blackpool will make a better start, but they have been hit and miss, and Leicester and Cardiff have been the most consistent.

 

Normally there is a surprise team that hits form near the middle of the season, so we will see which of the teams it will be, or whether Cardiff are strong enough to hold the top spot throughout the season.

 





The Premiership has Chelsea in top spot, and I did hope that Arsenal will be able to challenge, and they have started better than last year, although they have started conceding one goal in each of their last games.
I thought that Man Utd will be in a better position, although they are leading 2-0 against Newcastle, so they will move to third spot.

Football 06/10/12

Teams that may have both teams to score

Premiership

Man City v Sunderland (normally 1-0 at HT)

Liverpool v Stoke

Newcastle v Man Utd

Southampton v Fulham

Tottenham v Aston Villa

Championship

Blackpool v Charlton

* C Palace v Burnley (2 goals in sec half)

*Derby v Brighton

Leeds v Barnsley

Peterborough v Nott Forest (0-0 at HT)

Sheff Wed v Hull 

League One

*Coventry v Bournemouth

*Doncaster v Shrewsbury

Notts County v Tranmere

Oldham v Preston

*Stevenage v Scunthorpe

Bundesliga
Hannover 96 v Borussia Dortmund
Borussia M'Gladbach v Eintracht Frankfurt
Ausburg v Werder Bremen

 

Football - 29/09/12 - RESULT

Both Teams to Score

 

Man U v Tottenham (0-2) 2-3

Norwich v Liverpool (0-2) 2-5
Reading v Newcastle (0-0) 2-2

Bristol City v Leeds (0-0) 2-3
Middlesbrough v Leicester (0-0) 1-2
Wolves v Sheff Wed (1-0) 1-0

Bournemouth v Walsall (0-1) 1-2

Colchester v Hartlepool (2-1) 3-1

Stevenage v Bury (0-1) 2-2

I did better than last week, and had the majority correct with only one wrong out of 9. Wolves, again, failed me, so I may avoid picking them next weekend.
 

Football - 29/09/12

I haven't really done that well, so I have picked my top both teams to score, but I am only just following the result until I get more correct

Both Teams to Score

Man U v Tottenham

Norwich v Liverpool

Reading v Newcastle

Bristol City v Leeds

Middlesbrough v Leicester

Wolves v Sheff Wed

Bournemouth v Walsall

Colchester v Hartlepool

Stevenage v Bury

Football Stats - 24/09/12

I have included the stats for the Premiership and Championship (not including the games played today).

Football - 22/09/12 - RESULTS

Both Teams to Score

Newcastle v Norwich (1-0) 1-0
Tottenham v QPR (0-1) 2-1
WBA v Reading (0-0) 1-0

Crystal Palace v Cardiff (0-2) 3-2
Derby v Burnley (1-1) 1-2
Peterborough v Wolves (0-1) 0-2
Sheff Wed v Bolton (0-1) 1-2
Birmingham v Barnsley (0-0) 0-5
Ipswich v Charlton (0-0) 1-2
Leeds v Nott Forest (2-0) 2-1

Coventry v Carlisle (1-1) 1-2
Doncaster v Stevenage (0-1) 1-1
Yeovil v Sheff Utd (0-0) 0-1

The Championship had only two games that did not have BTS and I picked them (P'boro and Birmingham), although if you betted on over 1.5 goals (less odds) all the Championship games had this result.

Both Teams Not to score

West Ham v Sunderland (0-1) 1-1

Watford v Bristol City (0-0) 2-2

Crawley v Tranmere (2-2) 2-5
Swindon v Bournemouth (2-0) 4-0
Scunthorpe v Colchester (0-0) 1-0
Brentford v Oldham  (1-0) 1-0

For the Both Teams Not to score I had 3 out 6 right (poor), so will continue to monitor this as it could be a good strategy with the over 2.5 goals as a back up.

Football - 22/09/12

My predictions for this weekend games, but I am curious how many will be correct.
It is too early in the season to see if any trends have appeared.

Both Teams to Score

Newcastle v Norwich
Tottenham v QPR
WBA v Reading

Crystal Palace v Cardiff
Derby v Burnley
Peterborough v Wolves
Sheff Wed v Bolton
Birmingham v Barnsley
Ipswich v Charlton
Leeds v Nott Forest

Coventry v Carlisle
Doncaster v Stevenage
Yeovil v Sheff Utd

Both Teams Not to score

West Ham v Sunderland

Watford v Bristol City

Crawley v Tranmere
Swindon v Bournemouth
Scunthorpe v Colchester
Brentford v Oldham

Football - 14/09/12

Well, I am glad International week is over as I lost the majority of times, and must get in the habit of betting on the Premiership, Championship only

Championship fixtures

The Championship fixtures has a few teams that have had BTS so I could play that, but I am going to settle on over 1.5 goals, so the teams that are interesting are:- Charlton v Crystal Palace, Brightton v Sheff Wed, Bristol City v Blackburn, Cardiff v Leeds and Wolves v Leicester.

Premiership fixtures

For the Premiership the majority of games are over 1.5 goals, but has this will be their second home or away game, I cannot see any trends with these, but will consider Aston Villa v Swansea, Norwich v West Ham, Arsenal v Southamption, Reading v Tottenham and Man Utd v Wigan.

Hopefully I have the majority of  games right as there is an 75% chance in the Championship and 86% in the Premiership.

Unders/Overs 2.5 goals is also an interesting bet to play, although the result is slightly bias to over 2.5 goals. A worthy double bet, but I am going to avoid for now, and play safe until I get my losses back.

Football stat 01/09/12

All 6 games in the Premiership had 1.5 goals or more, so if you did a multiplier of of 1.5 goals you would have won. The stats on both teams to score is now 50-50.

Tottenham and Man City are two teams I was not expecting but currently their games have been involved in BTS, so a good bet to place as they score but cannot keep a clean sheet.

Premiership Statistics

The Championship had 8 out of 11 games at over 1.5 goals, and amazingly 6 games at over 3.5 goals.
I would have expected Leicester v Blackpool to be over 3.5, and they finished 1-0.
8 games were involved in Both Teams Scoring, and the odds start at around 1.8, so just picking two teams gets you over EVENS.
Only two games out of 47 games has finished goalless (96%).

Championship Statistics

I now bet on over 1.5 goals on Betfair but pick a few games (odds are around 1.25) so if you pick four games it is just over EVENS, and from viewing there is a high chance that games in the Premiership and Championship includes games.

Football fixture 01/09/12

Championship fixture with some stats but has only a few games have passed there is not much to note.

Only C Palace v Sheff Wed, and Derby v Watford look like they have goals considering they were all involved in 4 or more goals.

The Premiership fixture

Again, I cannot comment, although Man City seem to be struggling to keep a clean sheet, so could be worth a bet that BTS (both teams Score)?

Football Statistics

Well we are only 2 games into the Football, and I have provided the Championship HT scores which has not enough information to form any future results, but interestingly Bristol City have led 2-0 at HT for both their home games (worth a bet on over 2.5 goals).

Wolves have also led 1-0 at half-time, so worth a bet for a home win at half-time?

I normally notice one or two teams being consistent in certain results, but I need to wait 10 games in.

My current strategy is betting over 0.5 goals which is really low odds, but as there are not many 0-0 games I am doing reasonably well, but I tend to bet when the odds have risen a bit.

Football 25/08/12

Well that was an interesting weekend

10 of the 11 games in the Championship had 2 or more goals, and there was a higher proportion 7/11 where both teams scored. Only one game has finished 0-0 from the 36 games played so far, so if you betted on the over 0.5 goals you would be up (only by a small amount considering the low odds you get).


Championship Statistics

The Premiership had all the games score 2 or more, and there was 4 out of 7 where both teams scored.




Premiership Statistics

Championship 21/08/12 - Result

Well, I should have expected that there would be goals for the midweek fixtures.

Championship Statistics

There was 64% for over 2.5 goals, and 73% for Both Teams to Score (BTS) which evened out the results

I have included the total statistics which is 23 games, and the overall result is over 1.5 goals is 16/23 (70%) and under 2.5 goals is 14/23 (61%), and Brighton v Cardiff was the first goalless game played in the Championship.

My betting strategy that I am using is looking at the over 1.5 goals, and I won tonight with the Bristol City v Crystal Palace at 1.45 which is not that much.

The other interest is betting on the BTS (Both Team to Score) when a team scores early, and then laying on the BTS which is around 3 or more. Then betting BTS when the odds are favourable, so you win around 50% of your starting stake. I didn't win in tonight for this as I picked Blackpool v Leeds,and the Sheff Wed v Birmingham.
I am still looking to see whether the odds for BTS is worthy of betting or laying, but the odds are 50-50 now, so cannot tell which way the division sway in this statistic.
The next games will tell me more (or less)...

Football 18/08/12

Well, football has begun again (at last), and I have decided to monitir the goals scored in the Premiership and the Championship, and whether there is any consistent teams that have certain results.

Championship statistics

So, after the Championship first game, the majority of games ended under 2.5 goals.




Premiership Statistics

The Premiership had 70% games with more than 1.5 goals, and 50% of games with under 2.5 goals.
The one that is interesting is the number of games that do not finish with both teams scoring (BTS), considering the odds are normally favourite for BTS

Last game of the season

With Man City and Man Utd on level points before their final game, who will win the Premier League?
I think both teams will win their respective games, although Man City opponents (QPR) with their former manager, Mark Hughes may try to upset the game by playing defensively as Mark would prefer Man Utd to win the league.
And with Man Utd opponents Sunderland playing to end their season, I feel Man Utd will have a better chance of winning their game.

With third and fourth place still undecided for the European Champions League position still up for grabs. Who will get the two spots? Considering if Chelsea win the final, the team in fourth spot will lose their position (unfair?). Newcastle has a tough game away to Everton and if they win, they may get to 3rd or 4th as I see a slip up with Arsenal or Tottenham with both these teams struggling to win games.

And then we have the final team to be relegated. Will it be QPR or Bolton. QPR having to avoid defeat at Man City, or Bolton to beat Stoke away.

To be honest, I do not know what to bet on. The final game could affect all the players differently, and the games that have no value, could go either way.

Weekend - 28th April 2012 - RESULTS

Premiership Results
Everton v Fulham (3-0) 4-0
Norwich v Liverpool (0-2) 0-3
Stoke City v Arsenal (1-1) 1-1
Sunderland v Bolton (1-1) 2-2
Swansea v Wolverhampton (4-1) 4-4
West Brom v Aston Villa (0-0) 0-0
Wigan v Newcastle (4-0) 4-0
Chelsea v QPR (4-0) 6-1
Tottenham v Blackburn (1-0) 2-0
Man City v Man Utd (1-0) 1-0

Championship Results
Barnsley v Brighton (0-0) 0-0
Birmingham v Reading (1-0) 2-0
Burnley v Bristol City (0-0) 1-1
Crystal Palace v Cardiff (1-0) 1-2
Derby v Peterborough (1-0) 1-1
Doncaster v Ipswich (1-2) 2-3
Leeds v Leicester (0-1) 1-2
Millwall v Blackpool (1-1) 2-2
Nottingham Forest v Portsmouth (0-0) 2-0
Southampton v Coventry (2-0) 4-0
Watford v Middlesbrough (0-0) 2-1
West Ham v Hull (1-0) 2-1


Interesting, there is still a high percentage of over 1.5 goals, and I have noticed the bookies are now lowering the odds on this. I must admit that I have been betting on under so have lost my starting stake of £20! But to be honest I am only experimenting on this strategy, and am debating whether to bet under 1.5 goals at the beginning of the match then after 20 minutes or so betting it all on over 1.5 goals, which will then give me a profit as some of the games I have followed did not score the goals until late in the first half or even the second half, but a higher risk.

Weekend 28th April 2012

Statistics for over/under 1.5 goals

Looking at the away teams, only Bolton and Blackburn have never ended a game away with under 1.5 goals. Worth a punt?

I may bet on one game in the Championship as kick off is 12:30pm, and the Premiership game is at 3pm, so could bet on over 1.5goals on one game from the division.

Weekend 21st April RESULT

The results for the Premiership and Championship

PREMIERSHIP
Arsenal v Chelsea (0-0) 0-0
Aston Villa v Sunderland (0-0) 0-0
Blackburn v Norwich (1-0) 2-0
Bolton v Swansea (1-1) 1-1
Fulham v Wigan (0-0) 2-1
Newcastle v Stoke City (2-0) 3-0
QPR v Tottenham (1-0) 1-0


CHAMPIONSHIP
Blackpool v Burnley (1-0) 4-0
Brighton v Birmingham (0-0) 1-1
Bristol City v Barnsley (1-0) 2-0
Cardiff v Leeds (1-0) 1-1
Coventry v Doncaster (0-0) 0-2)
Hull v Nottingham Forest (0-0) 2-1
Ipswich v Millwall (0-1) 0-3
Middlesbrough v Southampton (1-1) 2-1
Peterborough v Watford (1-1) 2-2
Portsmouth v Derby (0-1) 1-2
Reading v Crystal Palace (1-1) 2-2


5/8 games had over 1.5 goals in the Premiership,
12/12 games had over 1.5 goals in the Championship
10/12 in League One
7/11 in League Two

Weekend 21st April

I have included the under/over 1.5 goals statistics for the Premiership and Championship

I am unsure what games to bet, so may just bet on the early morning kick off Cardiff v Leeds, one game at 3pm, and then the Middlesbrough v Southampton, and hope that the three games end with over 1.5 goals.





Midweek - 17th April

I have picked three matches where I hope that there will over 1.5 goals. I am debating on picking one, and if the two goals are scored, I will bet on the remaining match if they have not scored the two goals. A bit risky, but you get good odds if the three teams have over  1.5 goals in their match, but lose if one does not.

Weekend - 14th April 2012 RESULTS

Results

5 games that finished under 1.5 goals. I lost my stake as I went for Barsnley v Cardiff  instead of Swansea v Blackburn. Only good thing was Middlesbrough and Cardiff won their game away, and hopefully make it to the play-off.

Weekend - 14th April 2012

I am a bit late in posting this (sorry).

The early kick off for Norwich and Liverpool game both finished with over 1.5 goals, so could be a high scoring day.

I haven't had the time to see which games to bet on, but I did win with my Liverpool bet, so will decide whilst the games are being played. Hopefully no goals will have been scored whilst I debate on the match to pick (good luck)



10th April - RESULT

Over 1.5 goals

PREMIERSHIP
Blackburn v Liverpool @ 1.33 (1-2) 2-3

CHAMPIONSHIP
Brighton v Reading @ 1.39 (0-1) 0-1
Portsmouth v Millwall @ 1.4 (0-1) 0-1

LEAGUE ONE
Rochdale v Sheff Utd @ 1.27 (1-4) 2-5

50% chance of getting over 1.5 goals from the four games played.

I admit, I had a wager on the Millwall game, and when they scored, and I did think about laying over 1.5 goals, but I thought there would be one more goal... And I was sadly mistaken.

Oh well, I had a good run before I lost, and not sure about whether I will wait until Saturday now. I am a bit wary that April is the month where there are more low scoring games now.

10th April

Not many games today, and not sure whether I will lay a wager on them. Less games played seems to induce a high number of low scoring games (perhaps).

I have included the percentage of the home and away teams at getting over 1.5 goals, so the one of interest is the Blackburn v Liverpool game.

I will decide probably once the game starts whether I will wager anything on the match.

Blackburn has never been involved in 0-0 game at home so far, and always appear to have a goal scored in the second half (conceded or scored), so you could wager a bet in the second half for a goal.

Midweek - 9th April 2012 RESULT

PREMIERSHIP
Everton v Sunderland (0-0) 4-0
Newcastle v Bolton (0-0) 2-0
Tottenham v Norwich (1-1) 1-2
Aston Villa v Stoke City (1-0) 1-1
Fulham v Chelsea (0-1) 1-1

CHAMPIONSHIP
Blackpool v Barnsley (0-0) 1-1
Bristol City v Coventry (0-1) 3-1
Cardiff v Watford (1-0) 1-1
Crystal Palace v Southampton (0-1) 0-2
Doncaster v Burnley (0-1) 1-2
Hull v Middlesbrough (0-1) 2-1
Ipswich v Leicester (1-1) 1-2
Leeds v Derby (0-1) 0-2
Peterborough v Nottingham Forest (0-1) 0-1
West Ham v Birmingham (1-3) 3-3

STATISTICS
Over 1.5 goals
Premier League -  5/5
Championship - 9/10
League One - 8/11
League Two - 7/12

The Premiership has so far continued produce a high percentage of over 1.5 goals in the league, and in some cases, you could have betted on over 1.5 goals at odds of over 3.5 (Newcastle game).

I did four bets - Sheff Wed, Doncaster, West Ham and the Aston Villa game, and they all scored 2 or more goals, but then again there were not many games that scored under 1.5 goals so I think I could have done some late bets. I did consider the Hull, Everton and Cardiff game and when I looked the odds were over 2.1 in each of the games for just one more goal (they were 1-0), and as I debated the goals were scored so lost my oppurtunity.

Well, I was looking at the Aston Villa game with the score at 0-0 and in the 30th minute, and I was  debating about this game - the odds were at 2.1 and I froze, then the game was suspended as Aston Villa scored, so I lost my chance. Frotunately the game stayed at 1-0 for some time, and I managed to bet on over 1.5 goals at 1.41, not a big profit, but Stoke responded in the 70th minute so won 38% of my stake. Although to be honest if I did bet at 2.1 then once the goal went in I would have layed my bet that it would not be over 1.5 goals, so I would have 75% of my stake, and lose nothing if it stayed 1-0. An obvious higher win ratio, but at least I did not lose.

I did debate about the Fulham v Chelsea game, but considering that I was lucky in my last few games, I thought this would be tight. Fulham equalised in the 80th minute so if I thought there would have been a goal, I could have betted late in the game, but I was not confident on this match.


If you have not signed up to Betfair, then please view http://kitfootball.blogspot.co.uk/2011/05/betfair.html

Midweek - 9th April 2012

I have listed the under/over 1.5 goals for the Premiership and Championship, and from viewing the ones of interest to me for over 1.5 goals are:- Newcastle and Tottenham.
I imagine there will be 75% of the games that will end up over 1.5 goals, but I am not sure which to pick.

Well good luck, and make your own judgement on which games to bet on.

Weekend - 7th April 2012 - RESULT

Here are the scores for the Premiership and Championship

CHAMPIONSHIP
Birmingham v Crystal Palace (3-1) 3-1
Coventry v Peterborough (2-1) 2-2
Derby v Ipswich (0-0) 0-0
Leicester v Doncaster (1-0) 4-0
Middlesbrough v Cardiff (0-2) 0-2
Millwall v Hull (1-0) 2-0
Nottingham Forest v Bristol City (0-0) 0-1
Southampton v Portsmouth (1-1) 2-2

PREMIERSHIP
Bolton v Fulham (0-2) 0-3
Chelsea v Wigan (0-0) 2-1
Liverpool v Aston Villa (0-1) 1-1
Norwich v Everton (1-1) 2-2
Stoke City v Wolverhampton (1-1) 2-1
Sunderland v Tottenham (0-0) 0-0
West Brom v Blackburn (1-0) 3-0

Well, the Chelsea, Nowich and Leicester game all had more than 1.5 goals, and you could have waited for all of them to bet at 1.4, so good day today.
I had a bet on Blackburn late in the second half, as they are a team that always has a goal in the second half.


STATISTICS
Over 1.5 goals
Premier League -  6/7
Championship - 6/8
League One - 6/7

Again, a high percentage of games ended with 2 or more goals, and I won my bets for the Leicester game, and I did a wager on the WBA game at half-time for one goal in the second half.

Weekend - 7th April 2012

Here are the statistics for the home and away teams for under/overs 1.5 goals in a match

The Leicester, Chelsea and Norwich games are the only games of interest.

Millwall v Hull have a high chance of being under 1.5 goals, but I do not bet on this so slightly risky bet, but the odds should be interesting.



Friday 6th April - RESULT

CHAMPIONSHIP
Reading v Leeds (0-0) 2-0
Scored late in second half, so if you betted over 1.5 goals at beginning of second half, you would have good odds for the game.
Burnley v Brighton (1-0) 1-0
Watford v Blackpool (0-1) 0-2
Barnsley v West Ham (0-3) 0-4

PREM
Swansea v Newcastle (0-1) 0-2
I was unsure to bet on this, and at 0-1 at half-time, the odds were 1.44 for over 1.5 goals in the 60th minute, which I did not take. In hindsight I should have just placed a bet as there is always a goal in Newcastle matches in the second half.


STATISTICS
Over 1.5 goals
Premier League -  1/1
Championship - 3/4
League One - 4/5
League Two - 10/12

A high percentage of games ended up with 2 or more goals, so I was very lucky in the teams I picked were likely to win.

Friday 6th April

Well there are not that many games being played, so I have provided the number of games the teams has had under/over 1.5 goals this season.

The two games that are of interest is Barnsley v West Ham & Watford v Blackpool.

Blackpool will be my choice has they have scored at least one and conceded in their last few games

Over 1.5 goals strategy

I have decided to alter the over 0.5 goals strategy (taken from Betfair Forum) as the odds started at 1.08.

The strategy is you start with x amount, and stake this on a game for over 0.5 goals (in effect you are betting that the game will not be 0-0). If you win, then you stake this (including the small profit) on another game, and so on. The only thing that is annoying is that you really need to win at least 10 games in a row to make your stake back. Is it worth the risk?

See below example, staking £10 bet at the beginning, you would need 9 wins to be profitable, and then you will be staking the full amount, so you will need to siphon a small proportion of the winnings each time which would be very small and no point. The best way of playing this is to have a certain number of wins then start again when you reach your target.

 I do not find this to be profitable, so have altered it to bet on over 1.5 goals, and tend to bet after 10 minutes into the game. The odds are normally a better risk to take around 1.35.

The example is odds at 1.25 which is the average odds at the beginning of the match, and the below startegy I employ is to bet and (hopefully) win four games in a row. From that you would have won your stake back, so you can choose to withdraw this or continue to bet but each time you win you keep a small proportion of the winnings at certain intervals.

If you wait then the profit will be £5 or even £10, so you could take that and continue to win that at each game you stake, until you hit a game that does not go your way. Although then the profit will not increase.

It can happen that the game does not end with 2 goals or more, and you will need to analyse the market. Currently the Premiership has a high percentage of over 1.5 goals. League Two has an average of around 50-60% of over 1.5 goals so best to avoid the lower leagues.

One tip is to follow a particular team. Wolves and Blackburn seem to have a number of over 1.5 goals in a game and even over 2.5 goals is worth a punt (but the more goals the more likely of a loss so you will need to weigh this up).

Should you decide to try this with Betfair, then please sign up using my code LF3PGA3MV

Weekend 31st March 2012 - RESULT

 Tips for over 1.5 goals

Peterborough v Leicester @ 1.23 (0-0) 1-0 LOST
Wolverhampton v Bolton @ 1.3 * (0-0) 2-3 WON
Man City v Sunderland @ 1.22 (1-2) 3-3 WON

QPR v Arsenal @ 1.25 (1-1) 2-1 WON
Stevenage v Wycombe @ 1.31 (0-0) 1-1 WON
Carlisle v Huddersfield @ 1.3 (0-0) 2-1 WON

I had 5 out of 6 correct, and was lucky, although I have noticed the games that I pick seem to be 0-0 at half-time.

Draw games

League One
Carlisle v Huddersfield @ 3.4 (0-0) 2-1

Chesterfield v Scunthorpe @ 3.5 (1-1) 1-4
Rochdale v Walsall @ 3.3  (0-2) 3-3

I had one right so I would have won a small percentage, a £10 bet on a draw each would have made me just under £3. So I do not think this is worth while.

STATISTICS
Over 1.5 goals
Premier League - 7 out of 7
Championship - 7 out of 10 (not including Blackpool v Southampton)
League One - 9 out of 12
League Two - 5 out of 10

Again, Premiership has a high percentage for over 1.5 goals, and League Two is a good place to bet for under 1.5 goals (normally odds are around 3.2).

Weekend 31st March 2012

Tips for over 1.5 goals

Peterborough v Leicester @ 1.23
Wolverhampton v Bolton @ 1.3 *
Man City v Sunderland @ 1.22

QPR v Arsenal @ 1.25
Stevenage v Wycombe @ 1.31
Carlisle v Huddersfield @ 1.3

Draw games

If I get one game right below then I have a small profit. The away teams have had a majority of draws, so curious whether this is a good bet to do.

League One
Carlisle v Huddersfield @ 3.4 DRAW
Chesterfield v Scunthorpe @ 3.5 DRAW
Rochdale v Walsall @ 3.3 DRAW

Weekend 24 March 2012 - RESULT

Arsenal v Aston Villa (3-0)
Chelsea v Tottenham* (0-0)
Bolton v Blackburn* (2-1)

Barnsley v Peterborough (1-0)
Reading v Blackpool (3-1)
Wycombe v MK Dons (1-1)
Colchester v Carlisle (1-1)
Yeovil v Hartlepool (0-1)
AFC Wimbledon v Burton* (4-0)
Bristol Rovers v Southend* (1-0)
Crawley v Rotherham (3-0)
Northampton v Plymouth (0-0)

I had 7 right out of 12 (58% win), which is again poor. I need to have a 80% to make this a good strategy.

I have listed the leagues and the number of games that had over 1.5 goals

Premiership - 7 wins out of 8
Championship - 9 wins out of 11
League One -  6 wins out of 11
League Two - 5 wins out of 10

So, it may be better to concentrate on the Premiership and Championship games only, as it appears to be low scoring games in the lower leagues.

Blackpool have continued with scoring and conceding one in a game.

Weekend 24 March 2012

My tips for over 1.5 goals in a match

Arsenal v Aston Villa
Chelsea v Tottenham*
Bolton v Blackburn*

Barnsley v Peterborough
Reading v Blackpool

Wycombe v MK Dons
Colchester v Carlisle
Yeovil v Hartlepool

AFC Wimbledon v Burton*
Bristol Rovers v Southend*
Crawley v Rotherham
Northampton v Plymouth

Midweek - 20th March 2012 RESULT

Peterborough v Reading (3-1)
Carlisle v Preston (0-0)
Blackburn v Sunderland (2-0)
Gillingham v Crawley Town (0-1)
Accrington Stanley v Morecambe (1-1)
Port Vale v Hereford (1-0)
Barnet v Dag & Red (2-2)
Crewe v Bradford (1-0)

Wow, I only 4/8 to get 2 or more goals, so if I betted under 1.5 goals I would be up by a bit.

This is not good, started with a loss.

Midweek - 20th March 2012

I have started looking at goals (again), and interested in the over 1.5 goals market. It is similar to the one I read about on Betfair where you bet on over 0.5 goals but the odds are around 25%, so my way gives you your starting bet back after 3-4 games.

So the games that I think will be over 1.5 goals are

Peterborough v Reading
Carlisle v Preston
Blackburn v Sunderland
Gillingham v Crawley Town
Accrington Stanley v Morecambe
Port Vale v Hereford
Barnet v Dag & Red
Crewe v Bradford

I have picked one game, and started with £10

Weekend 21st January 2012

0-0 at Halftime
Reading v Hull @ 2.56
Blackpool v Crystal Palace @ 2.72
Birmingham v Watford @ 2.94

Home team to win
Swindon v Macclesfield @ 1.4
West Ham v Nott Forest @ 1.57
Oxford v Hereford @ 1.62
Birmingham v Watford @ 1.67
Carlisle v Walsall @ 1.73
Cheltenham v Bristol Rovers @ 1.8
Cardiff v Portsmouth @ 1.8
Colchester v Chesterfield @ 1.83
Southampton v Leicester @ 1.83

Away Team to win
Aldershot v Accrington Stanley @ 2.63
Scunthorpe v Stevenage @ 2.5
Notts County v MK Dons @ 2.4
Coventry v Middlesbrough @ 2.2
Plymouth v Crawley @ 1.73