Midweek - 9th April 2012 RESULT

PREMIERSHIP
Everton v Sunderland (0-0) 4-0
Newcastle v Bolton (0-0) 2-0
Tottenham v Norwich (1-1) 1-2
Aston Villa v Stoke City (1-0) 1-1
Fulham v Chelsea (0-1) 1-1

CHAMPIONSHIP
Blackpool v Barnsley (0-0) 1-1
Bristol City v Coventry (0-1) 3-1
Cardiff v Watford (1-0) 1-1
Crystal Palace v Southampton (0-1) 0-2
Doncaster v Burnley (0-1) 1-2
Hull v Middlesbrough (0-1) 2-1
Ipswich v Leicester (1-1) 1-2
Leeds v Derby (0-1) 0-2
Peterborough v Nottingham Forest (0-1) 0-1
West Ham v Birmingham (1-3) 3-3

STATISTICS
Over 1.5 goals
Premier League -  5/5
Championship - 9/10
League One - 8/11
League Two - 7/12

The Premiership has so far continued produce a high percentage of over 1.5 goals in the league, and in some cases, you could have betted on over 1.5 goals at odds of over 3.5 (Newcastle game).

I did four bets - Sheff Wed, Doncaster, West Ham and the Aston Villa game, and they all scored 2 or more goals, but then again there were not many games that scored under 1.5 goals so I think I could have done some late bets. I did consider the Hull, Everton and Cardiff game and when I looked the odds were over 2.1 in each of the games for just one more goal (they were 1-0), and as I debated the goals were scored so lost my oppurtunity.

Well, I was looking at the Aston Villa game with the score at 0-0 and in the 30th minute, and I was  debating about this game - the odds were at 2.1 and I froze, then the game was suspended as Aston Villa scored, so I lost my chance. Frotunately the game stayed at 1-0 for some time, and I managed to bet on over 1.5 goals at 1.41, not a big profit, but Stoke responded in the 70th minute so won 38% of my stake. Although to be honest if I did bet at 2.1 then once the goal went in I would have layed my bet that it would not be over 1.5 goals, so I would have 75% of my stake, and lose nothing if it stayed 1-0. An obvious higher win ratio, but at least I did not lose.

I did debate about the Fulham v Chelsea game, but considering that I was lucky in my last few games, I thought this would be tight. Fulham equalised in the 80th minute so if I thought there would have been a goal, I could have betted late in the game, but I was not confident on this match.


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