Sunday 22 May 2011

Premiership Odds - 22 May 2011 - Final Game

Well, below is the odds for the under/over market from Betfair (odds may have changed since, so please view Betfair for up to date odds)


As you can see, the odds are predicting a high-scoring game in almost all the games, with over 2.5 goals being favourite.

BET for over 1.5 goals in first half

I am going to suggest my pick that will hopefully end in 2 goals or more in the first half, from viewing their past results (I have a high chance of getting these wrong, but if the odds are good, then they will be worth a punt).

Fulham v Arsenal
Stoke v Wigan
Wolves v Blackburn

Bet for under/over 2.5 goals

Fulham v Arsenal (OVER)
Newcastle v West Brom (OVER)
West Ham v Sunderland (OVER)

The only game I suggest may be under 2.5 goals is Aston Villa v Liverpool, but this will be a speculative bet and I may wait for the first or even second goal to be scored before I bet on this (reason: odds would have increased, and AV tend to be involved in no goals being scored in the second half so worth a risk, although Liverpool do tend to be involved in second half goals, so a small bet is worth the risk).

PLEASE NOTE
Whenever I bet on any event, I will normally wait until the odds are over evens at best. I never bet on favourites, but have never really analysed whether the favourite are accurate on the under/over goal market.

I do this, as I can always then bet against the result if the result are going my way.

For example. If I bet under 2.5 goals at 2.2; and say the result is 0-0 at half-time, then the odds of over 2.5 goals is normally above evens, say 2.5, so if I then bet for over 2.5 goals, then I am safe on whatever the outcome, although I do not win that much then, you cannot lose.

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