Sunday 15 May 2011

15 May 2011 - Premiership Bet


 Chelsea v Newcastle, 13:30

Chelsea are favourite to win this game, and with Man Utd now Champions, Chelsea will be playing to secure second spot, which they should have no problem.
Chelsea have won their last 7 home games.
Newcastle, on the other hand, have lost 3 out of their last 4 away games and have nothing to play for, so may even play a weakened side.

Over/under 2.5 goals
Go for under 2.5 goals at 2.66

Result: Game ended 2-2, and two early goals caused a slight hiccup in this prediction. However, due to the early goals, the odds for under 2.5 goals shot to 21, which I duly took, and the result stayed like this until the 75th minute where I bet on Over 2.5 goals which was around evens.
For example a £10 bet at 21 for under 2.5 would give me £210; and then a bet placed for over 2.5goals at £100 (say) at evens meant that even though my predication was wrong (eventually) I took advantage of the situation and covered my self in both outcomes.




Arsenal v Aston Villa, 16:00

Arsenal has lost form big-time, and have struggled to score more than 1 goal in the last 5 home games, with 3 draws and 2 home wins. Although during that time they have only conceded 1 goal.
Aston Villa has failed to stop the opposition scoring against them away all season, so this game is more than likely to be high scoring, with Man Utd, Chelsea, Liverpool and Man City all scoring 3 goals or more.

under/over 2.5 goals
Arsenal last 6 home games have had 2 or less goals.
Aston Villa has been involved in 9 games where there have been more than 3 goals or more out of the last 11 away games

Half-time
Arsenal have drawn 10 times and lead 5 times at Half-time, so a draw at 2.7 is worth a punt with BetFair

Lost on this, Aston Villa scored two early goals and Arsenal could not get going and scored late in the second half so the game ended 1-2 




Liverpool v Tottenham, 16:00

Liverpool has won their last four games at home scoring 3 goals or more. 
Tottenham have lost 3 and drawn 6 in their last 9 away games, and have been involved in 3 goals or more in 4 out of the last 5 away games.

Half-time/Full-time
Liverpool to win at half-time and full-time at 2.88
Again, unusual results which ended with Tottenham winning the game 2-0

Under/Over 2.5 goals
Go for over 2.5 goals at 1.88
Did not win this either but due to the early goal scored, I bet on the game being under 2.5 goals at 3.6, but then later in the game placed a bet over at evens. So did not win that much on this

Over 1.5 goals in first half
One of my fave bets is to pick a game that will have two or more goals in the first half, and I think that this game has a high chance with good odds at 2.77.
Again, was unlucky an early goal was scored, but if you was quick you could have then bet for under 1.5 goals in first half so your bet was covered.

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Please note: that these are just prediction made after analysing their past games, and still have a chance of being wrong. That is why I prefer to play the in-play bets, as I bet for an outcome and when the odds turn, I then bet against the outcome so my bet is covered in all possible results.

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