Play off Finals 2010/11 - Result

Well, I did badly on the Play off finals

That is football for you, I expected Huddersfield to be a high-scoring game, and they did eventually come through but not until the 70th minute where 3 goals were scored in the last 20 minute.

I was thinking of the over 1.5 goals in first half, for the Reading v Swansea game, but I really thought that this would be a really tight game.

Always a good bet for over 2.5 goals, and can normally cover yourself if you get a goal or two in the first half.

Play off Finals 2010/11

Huddersfield v Peterborough

This has goals galore, or so they say in the Sun Newspaper.
I am not that familiar for games in the lower league, so a risky bet for over 1.5 goals in the first half @ 2.56 on Bet fair looks good.

Although I am going to wait for the odds to increase to 3, so no goals for the first ten minutes, then I hope that 2 goals are scored.

And the forecast score is 2-3 from the Sun.

I am not sure but will go for the over 1.5 goals in first half, but will not put much on it, but the odds are worth the risk.

BET: over 1.5 goals in first half, but wait til the tenth minute before betting, and hope no goals are scored.

Reading v Swansea

Not sure about this game, it is forecast for a 1-0 win to Reading, but I have slight feeling that Swansea could make it.

BET: go for under 1.5 goals, and hope no goals are scored in first half, so if you are unsure, you can then bet that it will be over 1.5 goals (normally around evens if still 0-0).

Odds are taken from Betfair, and may have changed since this was published.

When the two games are finished, I will publish a new blog with the results, and whether I was right or wrong.

Please do not bet with money you do not have, and always do your own research before betting.

UK Only - Paddy Power and Betfair

Barcelona v Man Utd at 7:45pm

For UK punters, there is an intriguing bet that can be done by betting for the European Final, and for punters who have not got a phone account with Paddy Power. If you have, then this will not work.

Paddy Power (phone account)
If you have not got a phone account with Paddy Power and call to open one quoting "The Sun" today on 08000 565 265, then the odds is trebled for this game.

Put a bet of £50.00 on the draw at 7/1 (you win £400.00 if it ends in a draw)

Betfair 

If you have an account then place a LAY bet on the draw (ie you are betting that this will not be a draw) £100 @ 3.55.

If you do not have an account, open one and quote LF3PGA3MV in the "refer and earn" field to get £25 once you bet


Result
Barcelona or Man Utd win in 90 minutes
You lose the Paddy Powers bet of £50.00, but win £100 from Betfair, so overall win £50.00

Draw in 90 minutes
You win £400.00 with Paddy Power and lose £355.00 with Betfair, so overall win £45.00

Bonus: If you have not got a Betfair account, then you get a bonus of £25.00 using the above refer and earn code.

Please note: that the odds may change, and if it does, then the amount you may win may differ from what I have listed above.

Unders and Overs - Betfair

This is one of my preferred bets on Betfair which I find the safest and more likely for me to win.

Why is this good? Well, for one thing all you are betting for are the number of goals. Do you think there will be more or less goals.

One of the things I tend to look out for, is I tend to look at the home teams form and the away team form and see whether they concede or are very defensive.

Option 1 - under 2.5 goals where odds are above evens.
The odds normally favour under 2.5 goals or over 2.5 goals, so I tend to bet on the unlikely event. For example if the odds for under 2.5 goals is 2.4, then if I bet £10 on this, I will lose £10 if this is over 2.5 goals. So I will hope that the first half has few goals, and if I am lucky it will still be goalless. In this case, the odds for over 1.5 goals will normally be evens or a bit better, so betting £10 on over 1.5 goals gives you a win-win situation and if it only 2 goals are scored then you win on both events.

Option 2 - Over 2.5 goals where odds are above evens.
Should the odds favour a low scoring goal, then I bet over 2.5 goals, and hope for an early goal, which if it does happen, then the under 2.5 goals will have odds greater then evens.
A bet on both will enable you to win in both events, although you do not win much.

Premiership Odds - 22 May 2011 - Final Game - RESULTS

Well, I did okay in my predictions, although I did have the Stoke v Wigan game wrong.

Has you can see the the odds on over 1.5 goals in first half is a good bet to make, if you know which teams are likely to have goals.

Premiership Odds - 22 May 2011 - Final Game

Well, below is the odds for the under/over market from Betfair (odds may have changed since, so please view Betfair for up to date odds)

As you can see, the odds are predicting a high-scoring game in almost all the games, with over 2.5 goals being favourite.

BET for over 1.5 goals in first half

I am going to suggest my pick that will hopefully end in 2 goals or more in the first half, from viewing their past results (I have a high chance of getting these wrong, but if the odds are good, then they will be worth a punt).

Fulham v Arsenal
Stoke v Wigan
Wolves v Blackburn

Bet for under/over 2.5 goals

Fulham v Arsenal (OVER)
Newcastle v West Brom (OVER)
West Ham v Sunderland (OVER)

The only game I suggest may be under 2.5 goals is Aston Villa v Liverpool, but this will be a speculative bet and I may wait for the first or even second goal to be scored before I bet on this (reason: odds would have increased, and AV tend to be involved in no goals being scored in the second half so worth a risk, although Liverpool do tend to be involved in second half goals, so a small bet is worth the risk).

PLEASE NOTE
Whenever I bet on any event, I will normally wait until the odds are over evens at best. I never bet on favourites, but have never really analysed whether the favourite are accurate on the under/over goal market.

I do this, as I can always then bet against the result if the result are going my way.

For example. If I bet under 2.5 goals at 2.2; and say the result is 0-0 at half-time, then the odds of over 2.5 goals is normally above evens, say 2.5, so if I then bet for over 2.5 goals, then I am safe on whatever the outcome, although I do not win that much then, you cannot lose.

Championship Pay Off Semi-Final second leg

Monday, 16 May 2011

Swansea v Nott'm Forest, (agg 0-0), POSF, L2, 19:45

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Tuesday, 17 May 2011

Cardiff v Reading, (agg 0-0), POSF, L2, 19:45

So, currently the two Welsh teams have a good chance of making it to the finals with their games  finishing goalless in the first leg.

Swansea v Nottingham Forest

Swansea have one of the best home records in their division with 15 wins and only 3 losses, scoring 41 and only conceding 11

Whereas Nottingham Forest has had a mixed results away with 7W 7D 9L. 

The bet here is now for Swansea to win this game due to their superiority at homes games, and Nottingham Forest failing to beat a resolute Swansea team that was reduced to 10 men in the second minute!

Under/Over 2.5 goals

I fancy the over 2.5 goals which is currently trading at 2.32, as I believe there will be a goal or two in the first half.

Once an early goal is scored, I would then bet for under 2.5 which should trade at around 2.5, which will hopefully give you a win-win result.

Although, I am not sure about this as there may only be two goals in total for this game.

Result: Swansea win 3-1

Cardiff v Reading

Cardiff have been pretty okay at home, with 12 home wins out of 23 games, with Reading only losing 5 games away all season.

I still feel that Cardiff are probably the underdogs in this game, and a punt on Reading at 3.3 to win away. Although I would like to see Cardiff progress, and even if they score an early goal to calm their nerves they may still 'bottle' the game and lose in the end. I hope I am wrong.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals

Currently at 2.24 for over 2.5 goals, and I believe that the game being stalemate in the first leg, will enable an early goal in the first half (Cardiff more likely to score first), so a bet on over may be worth it, and again, you can always bet for under when the first goal is scored, although this has the classic of being a 2-2 game!

The only way I can lose on this is if it stays 0-0, but if you want to play safe you could also bet for a draw at 3.35 (on Bet Fair).

Result: finished 3-0 to Reading. 

15 May 2011 - Premiership Bet

 Chelsea v Newcastle, 13:30

Chelsea are favourite to win this game, and with Man Utd now Champions, Chelsea will be playing to secure second spot, which they should have no problem.

Chelsea have won their last 7 home games.

Newcastle, on the other hand, have lost 3 out of their last 4 away games and have nothing to play for, so may even play a weakened side.

Over/under 2.5 goals
Go for under 2.5 goals at 2.66

Result: Game ended 2-2, and two early goals caused a slight hiccup in this prediction. However, due to the early goals, the odds for under 2.5 goals shot to 21, which I duly took, and the result stayed like this until the 75th minute where I bet on Over 2.5 goals which was around evens.
For example a £10 bet at 21 for under 2.5 would give me £210; and then a bet placed for over 2.5goals at £100 (say) at evens meant that even though my predication was wrong (eventually) I took advantage of the situation and covered my self in both outcomes.




Arsenal v Aston Villa, 16:00

Arsenal has lost form big-time, and have struggled to score more than 1 goal in the last 5 home games, with 3 draws and 2 home wins. Although during that time they have only conceded 1 goal.

Aston Villa has failed to stop the opposition scoring against them away all season, so this game is more than likely to be high scoring, with Man Utd, Chelsea, Liverpool and Man City all scoring 3 goals or more.

under/over 2.5 goals
Arsenal last 6 home games have had 2 or less goals.
Aston Villa has been involved in 9 games where there have been more than 3 goals or more out of the last 11 away games

Half-time

Arsenal have drawn 10 times and lead 5 times at Half-time, so a draw at 2.7 is worth a punt with BetFair

Lost on this, Aston Villa scored two early goals and Arsenal could not get going and scored late in the second half so the game ended 1-2 




Liverpool v Tottenham, 16:00

Liverpool has won their last four games at home scoring 3 goals or more. 

Tottenham have lost 3 and drawn 6 in their last 9 away games, and have been involved in 3 goals or more in 4 out of the last 5 away games.

Half-time/Full-time

Liverpool to win at half-time and full-time at 2.88
Again, unusual results which ended with Tottenham winning the game 2-0

Under/Over 2.5 goals
Go for over 2.5 goals at 1.88

Did not win this either but due to the early goal scored, I bet on the game being under 2.5 goals at 3.6, but then later in the game placed a bet over at evens. So did not win that much on this

Over 1.5 goals in first half
One of my fave bets is to pick a game that will have two or more goals in the first half, and I think that this game has a high chance with good odds at 2.77.
Again, was unlucky an early goal was scored, but if you was quick you could have then bet for under 1.5 goals in first half so your bet was covered.

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Please note: that these are just prediction made after analysing their past games, and still have a chance of being wrong. That is why I prefer to play the in-play bets, as I bet for an outcome and when the odds turn, I then bet against the outcome so my bet is covered in all possible results.

Championship Play-off 2011

 Well, I am slightly gutted that Cardiff did not qualify automatically to the Premiership. I did believe that they were more likely to make the Play-off, although I am still unsure whether they have the strength to qualify and even survive the Premiership.

Play-off dates and times (taken from the BBC website). 

Thursday, 12 May 2011

Nott'm Forest v Swansea, POSF, L1, 19:45

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Friday, 13 May 2011

Reading v Cardiff, POSF, L1, 19:45

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Monday, 16 May 2011

Swansea v Nott'm Forest, POSF, L2, 19:45

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Tuesday, 17 May 2011

Cardiff v Reading, POSF, L2, 19:45

From viewing the form guide, Nottingham appear to be the form team entering the Play-off winning 5 games, and the other teams only winning 3 from their last 6 games.

Nottm Forest  5W 1L

Swansea 3W 2D 1L

Cardiff 3W 2D 1L

Reading 3W 2D 1L

Nottm Forest v Swansea

Nottingham has won 13 games at home and their last 3 games at home.

Swansea has lost 11 games away, and lost 4 in their last 6 away games.

So it seems Nottingham Forest are likely to win this game, and they also won 3-1 earlier in the Championship season.

Result: Game ended 0-0 with Swansea having a man sent off in the second minute. So good result for Swansea.

Reading v Cardiff

Reading have won 12 games at home with 6 wins in their last 7 home games.

Cardiff have lost 8 games away and won 11, and have won 3 games in the last 5 away games.

Both games in the Championship ended in stalemate

So, a game that could go either way, depending on who scores the crucial first goal. 

Result: Game ended 0-0 

I am really unsure whether Cardiff can qualify, and they may even lose the first leg, which I do hope does not happen, but they may capitulate at home as well.

So my prediction for the team to qualify will more likely come from the first game between Nottingham Forest and Swansea, and as Nottingham are more likely to draw first blood with a home win, they may be strong enough to get something away to Swansea.