Weekend 28th April 2012

Statistics for over/under 1.5 goals

Looking at the away teams, only Bolton and Blackburn have never ended a game away with under 1.5 goals. Worth a punt?

I may bet on one game in the Championship as kick off is 12:30pm, and the Premiership game is at 3pm, so could bet on over 1.5goals on one game from the division.

Weekend 21st April RESULT

The results for the Premiership and Championship

PREMIERSHIP
Arsenal v Chelsea (0-0) 0-0
Aston Villa v Sunderland (0-0) 0-0
Blackburn v Norwich (1-0) 2-0
Bolton v Swansea (1-1) 1-1
Fulham v Wigan (0-0) 2-1
Newcastle v Stoke City (2-0) 3-0
QPR v Tottenham (1-0) 1-0


CHAMPIONSHIP
Blackpool v Burnley (1-0) 4-0
Brighton v Birmingham (0-0) 1-1
Bristol City v Barnsley (1-0) 2-0
Cardiff v Leeds (1-0) 1-1
Coventry v Doncaster (0-0) 0-2)
Hull v Nottingham Forest (0-0) 2-1
Ipswich v Millwall (0-1) 0-3
Middlesbrough v Southampton (1-1) 2-1
Peterborough v Watford (1-1) 2-2
Portsmouth v Derby (0-1) 1-2
Reading v Crystal Palace (1-1) 2-2


5/8 games had over 1.5 goals in the Premiership,
12/12 games had over 1.5 goals in the Championship
10/12 in League One
7/11 in League Two

Weekend 21st April

I have included the under/over 1.5 goals statistics for the Premiership and Championship

I am unsure what games to bet, so may just bet on the early morning kick off Cardiff v Leeds, one game at 3pm, and then the Middlesbrough v Southampton, and hope that the three games end with over 1.5 goals.





Midweek - 17th April

I have picked three matches where I hope that there will over 1.5 goals. I am debating on picking one, and if the two goals are scored, I will bet on the remaining match if they have not scored the two goals. A bit risky, but you get good odds if the three teams have over  1.5 goals in their match, but lose if one does not.

Weekend - 14th April 2012 RESULTS

Results

5 games that finished under 1.5 goals. I lost my stake as I went for Barsnley v Cardiff  instead of Swansea v Blackburn. Only good thing was Middlesbrough and Cardiff won their game away, and hopefully make it to the play-off.

Weekend - 14th April 2012

I am a bit late in posting this (sorry).

The early kick off for Norwich and Liverpool game both finished with over 1.5 goals, so could be a high scoring day.

I haven't had the time to see which games to bet on, but I did win with my Liverpool bet, so will decide whilst the games are being played. Hopefully no goals will have been scored whilst I debate on the match to pick (good luck)



10th April - RESULT

Over 1.5 goals

PREMIERSHIP
Blackburn v Liverpool @ 1.33 (1-2) 2-3

CHAMPIONSHIP
Brighton v Reading @ 1.39 (0-1) 0-1
Portsmouth v Millwall @ 1.4 (0-1) 0-1

LEAGUE ONE
Rochdale v Sheff Utd @ 1.27 (1-4) 2-5

50% chance of getting over 1.5 goals from the four games played.

I admit, I had a wager on the Millwall game, and when they scored, and I did think about laying over 1.5 goals, but I thought there would be one more goal... And I was sadly mistaken.

Oh well, I had a good run before I lost, and not sure about whether I will wait until Saturday now. I am a bit wary that April is the month where there are more low scoring games now.

10th April

Not many games today, and not sure whether I will lay a wager on them. Less games played seems to induce a high number of low scoring games (perhaps).

I have included the percentage of the home and away teams at getting over 1.5 goals, so the one of interest is the Blackburn v Liverpool game.

I will decide probably once the game starts whether I will wager anything on the match.

Blackburn has never been involved in 0-0 game at home so far, and always appear to have a goal scored in the second half (conceded or scored), so you could wager a bet in the second half for a goal.

Midweek - 9th April 2012 RESULT

PREMIERSHIP
Everton v Sunderland (0-0) 4-0
Newcastle v Bolton (0-0) 2-0
Tottenham v Norwich (1-1) 1-2
Aston Villa v Stoke City (1-0) 1-1
Fulham v Chelsea (0-1) 1-1

CHAMPIONSHIP
Blackpool v Barnsley (0-0) 1-1
Bristol City v Coventry (0-1) 3-1
Cardiff v Watford (1-0) 1-1
Crystal Palace v Southampton (0-1) 0-2
Doncaster v Burnley (0-1) 1-2
Hull v Middlesbrough (0-1) 2-1
Ipswich v Leicester (1-1) 1-2
Leeds v Derby (0-1) 0-2
Peterborough v Nottingham Forest (0-1) 0-1
West Ham v Birmingham (1-3) 3-3

STATISTICS
Over 1.5 goals
Premier League -  5/5
Championship - 9/10
League One - 8/11
League Two - 7/12

The Premiership has so far continued produce a high percentage of over 1.5 goals in the league, and in some cases, you could have betted on over 1.5 goals at odds of over 3.5 (Newcastle game).

I did four bets - Sheff Wed, Doncaster, West Ham and the Aston Villa game, and they all scored 2 or more goals, but then again there were not many games that scored under 1.5 goals so I think I could have done some late bets. I did consider the Hull, Everton and Cardiff game and when I looked the odds were over 2.1 in each of the games for just one more goal (they were 1-0), and as I debated the goals were scored so lost my oppurtunity.

Well, I was looking at the Aston Villa game with the score at 0-0 and in the 30th minute, and I was  debating about this game - the odds were at 2.1 and I froze, then the game was suspended as Aston Villa scored, so I lost my chance. Frotunately the game stayed at 1-0 for some time, and I managed to bet on over 1.5 goals at 1.41, not a big profit, but Stoke responded in the 70th minute so won 38% of my stake. Although to be honest if I did bet at 2.1 then once the goal went in I would have layed my bet that it would not be over 1.5 goals, so I would have 75% of my stake, and lose nothing if it stayed 1-0. An obvious higher win ratio, but at least I did not lose.

I did debate about the Fulham v Chelsea game, but considering that I was lucky in my last few games, I thought this would be tight. Fulham equalised in the 80th minute so if I thought there would have been a goal, I could have betted late in the game, but I was not confident on this match.


If you have not signed up to Betfair, then please view http://kitfootball.blogspot.co.uk/2011/05/betfair.html

Midweek - 9th April 2012

I have listed the under/over 1.5 goals for the Premiership and Championship, and from viewing the ones of interest to me for over 1.5 goals are:- Newcastle and Tottenham.
I imagine there will be 75% of the games that will end up over 1.5 goals, but I am not sure which to pick.

Well good luck, and make your own judgement on which games to bet on.

Weekend - 7th April 2012 - RESULT

Here are the scores for the Premiership and Championship

CHAMPIONSHIP
Birmingham v Crystal Palace (3-1) 3-1
Coventry v Peterborough (2-1) 2-2
Derby v Ipswich (0-0) 0-0
Leicester v Doncaster (1-0) 4-0
Middlesbrough v Cardiff (0-2) 0-2
Millwall v Hull (1-0) 2-0
Nottingham Forest v Bristol City (0-0) 0-1
Southampton v Portsmouth (1-1) 2-2

PREMIERSHIP
Bolton v Fulham (0-2) 0-3
Chelsea v Wigan (0-0) 2-1
Liverpool v Aston Villa (0-1) 1-1
Norwich v Everton (1-1) 2-2
Stoke City v Wolverhampton (1-1) 2-1
Sunderland v Tottenham (0-0) 0-0
West Brom v Blackburn (1-0) 3-0

Well, the Chelsea, Nowich and Leicester game all had more than 1.5 goals, and you could have waited for all of them to bet at 1.4, so good day today.
I had a bet on Blackburn late in the second half, as they are a team that always has a goal in the second half.


STATISTICS
Over 1.5 goals
Premier League -  6/7
Championship - 6/8
League One - 6/7

Again, a high percentage of games ended with 2 or more goals, and I won my bets for the Leicester game, and I did a wager on the WBA game at half-time for one goal in the second half.

Weekend - 7th April 2012

Here are the statistics for the home and away teams for under/overs 1.5 goals in a match

The Leicester, Chelsea and Norwich games are the only games of interest.

Millwall v Hull have a high chance of being under 1.5 goals, but I do not bet on this so slightly risky bet, but the odds should be interesting.



Friday 6th April - RESULT

CHAMPIONSHIP
Reading v Leeds (0-0) 2-0
Scored late in second half, so if you betted over 1.5 goals at beginning of second half, you would have good odds for the game.
Burnley v Brighton (1-0) 1-0
Watford v Blackpool (0-1) 0-2
Barnsley v West Ham (0-3) 0-4

PREM
Swansea v Newcastle (0-1) 0-2
I was unsure to bet on this, and at 0-1 at half-time, the odds were 1.44 for over 1.5 goals in the 60th minute, which I did not take. In hindsight I should have just placed a bet as there is always a goal in Newcastle matches in the second half.


STATISTICS
Over 1.5 goals
Premier League -  1/1
Championship - 3/4
League One - 4/5
League Two - 10/12

A high percentage of games ended up with 2 or more goals, so I was very lucky in the teams I picked were likely to win.

Friday 6th April

Well there are not that many games being played, so I have provided the number of games the teams has had under/over 1.5 goals this season.

The two games that are of interest is Barnsley v West Ham & Watford v Blackpool.

Blackpool will be my choice has they have scored at least one and conceded in their last few games

Over 1.5 goals strategy

I have decided to alter the over 0.5 goals strategy (taken from Betfair Forum) as the odds started at 1.08.

The strategy is you start with x amount, and stake this on a game for over 0.5 goals (in effect you are betting that the game will not be 0-0). If you win, then you stake this (including the small profit) on another game, and so on. The only thing that is annoying is that you really need to win at least 10 games in a row to make your stake back. Is it worth the risk?

See below example, staking £10 bet at the beginning, you would need 9 wins to be profitable, and then you will be staking the full amount, so you will need to siphon a small proportion of the winnings each time which would be very small and no point. The best way of playing this is to have a certain number of wins then start again when you reach your target.

 I do not find this to be profitable, so have altered it to bet on over 1.5 goals, and tend to bet after 10 minutes into the game. The odds are normally a better risk to take around 1.35.

The example is odds at 1.25 which is the average odds at the beginning of the match, and the below startegy I employ is to bet and (hopefully) win four games in a row. From that you would have won your stake back, so you can choose to withdraw this or continue to bet but each time you win you keep a small proportion of the winnings at certain intervals.

If you wait then the profit will be £5 or even £10, so you could take that and continue to win that at each game you stake, until you hit a game that does not go your way. Although then the profit will not increase.

It can happen that the game does not end with 2 goals or more, and you will need to analyse the market. Currently the Premiership has a high percentage of over 1.5 goals. League Two has an average of around 50-60% of over 1.5 goals so best to avoid the lower leagues.

One tip is to follow a particular team. Wolves and Blackburn seem to have a number of over 1.5 goals in a game and even over 2.5 goals is worth a punt (but the more goals the more likely of a loss so you will need to weigh this up).

Should you decide to try this with Betfair, then please sign up using my code LF3PGA3MV