Weekend 29 October 2011 - RESULT

Home wins
*Man City v Wolverhampton @ 1.2 WON 3-1
*Crawley Town v Accrington Stanley @ 1.36 LOST 1-1
Sheffield Utd v Exeter @ 1.57 LOST 4-4
Cheltenham v Plymouth @ 1.62 WON 2-1
Swindon v Bradford @ 1.67 LOST 0-0
Norwich v Blackburn @ 2 LOST  3-3
Birmingham v Brighton @ 2.2 LOST 0-0
Crystal Palace v Reading @ 2.63 LOST 0-0

Away team not to lose
Millwall v Ipswich AW 3.2; D 3.25 LOST 4-1
Nottingham Forest v Hull AW 3.2; D 3.25 WON 0-1
Scunthorpe v Tranmere AW 3.1; D 3.3 LOST 4-2
Watford v Peterborough AW 2.6; D 3.3 LOST 3-2
Barnet v Burton Albion AW 2.4; D 3.3 WON  3-6
*Wycombe v Sheffield Wed AW 2.1; D 3.4 WON  1-2
*Hartlepool v Charlton AW 2.1; D 3.4 WON  0-4
Yeovil v Huddersfield  AW 1.8; D 3.5 WON  0-1

So, did not do that well. The majority of home picks were absolutely poor, but I am better at picking the Half-time/full-time bets.

Half-time/Full-time
Charlton A/A @ 3.5 WON 0-3 (A/A)
Norwich H/H @ 3.5 LOST 1-3 (A/A)

Half-time bets
Oxford to win at HT @ 2.68 WON 1-0 HT
Birm v Brighton Draw at HT @ 2.16 WON 0-0 HT

Interestingly, 5 out of 8 won in the top and bottom picks, so will keep a close eye on this, and see if this is an interesting bet to make. It may change but the top teams should win, and the bottom team should lose, but then again,...
Premiership

1st Man City to win @ 1.2 WON 

20th Blackburn to lose @ 2 LOST 

Championship

1st Southampton to win @ 1.83 WON 

24th Bristol City to lose @ 2 LOST 

League One

1st Charlton to win @ 2.1 WON 

24th Yeovil to lose @ 1.8 WON 

League Two

1st Crawley Town to win @ 1.36 LOST

24th Plymouth to lose @ 1.62 WON 

Weekend 29 October 2011

Home wins
*Man City v Wolverhampton @ 1.2
*Crawley Town v Accrington Stanley @ 1.36
Sheffield Utd v Exeter @ 1.57
Cheltenham v Plymouth @ 1.62
Swindon v Bradford @ 1.67
Norwich v Blackburn @ 2
Birmingham v Brighton @ 2.2
Crystal Palace v Reading @ 2.63

Away team not to lose
Millwall v Ipswich AW 3.2; D 3.25
Nottingham Forest v Hull AW 3.2; D 3.25
Scunthorpe v Tranmere AW 3.1; D 3.3
Watford v Peterborough AW 2.6; D 3.3
Barnet v Burton Albion AW 2.4; D 3.3
*Wycombe v Sheffield Wed AW 2.1; D 3.4
*Hartlepool v Charlton AW 2.1; D 3.4
Yeovil v Huddersfield  AW 1.8; D 3.5

Picking the four teams (*) the odds is 2.75 which is okay, although I am considering a double bet of Sheff Utd and Swindon to win @ 2.62

Half-time/Full-time
Charlton A/A @ 3.5
Norwich H/H @ 3.5

Half-time bets
Oxford to win at HT @ 2.68
Birm v Brighton Draw at HT @ 2.16

...and finally the top and bottom team of each league to see how often they win and lose as a collective.
Premiership

1st Man City to win @ 1.2

20th Blackburn to lose @ 2

Championship

1st Southampton to win @ 1.83

24th Bristol City to lose @ 2

League One

1st Charlton to win @ 2.1

24th Yeovil to lose @ 1.8

League Two

1st Crawley Town to win @ 1.36

24th Plymouth to lose @ 1.62

Midweek - 25/10/11 - RESULT

Home Win
*Crawley Town v Dag & Red WON 3-1
Oxford Utd v Plymouth WON 5-1
Shrewsbury v Accrington Stanley WON 1-0
*Cheltenham v Crewe LOST 0-1

Away team not to lose
Scunthorpe v Huddersfield (A/A @ 3.55) WON 2-2 (D/D)
Barnet v Southend (A/A @ 3.75) WON 0-3 (A/A)
*Wycombe v Charlton (A/A @ 3.15) WON 1-2 (A/A)
*Torquay v AFC Wimbledon (A/A @ 5.3) LOST 4-0 (H/H)


Alternative Bets 
I am now looking at the results for the top and bottom team in each league and their result. So for the team in first position, a win, and the bottom team to lose.

League One
1st Charlton to win @ 1.83 WON 2-1
24th Leyton Orient  to lose @ 2.63 LOST 1-1
League Two
1st Crawley Town to win @ 1.36 WON 3-1
24th Plymouth to lose @ 1.44 WON 5-1


So interestingly three wins from four, but then again the odds were rather low to get anything. Although, I did notice that Leyton was not bottom, and it was Yeovil (they drew, so made no difference).

Midweek - 25/10/11

Found the four form teams for home and away games, and not sure how confident I am in picking them. I am starting to favour betting on half-time/full-time results, as they appear to be more interesting and only need to concentrate on one game.

Home Win
*Crawley Town v Dag & Red
Oxford Utd v Plymouth
Shrewsbury v Accrington Stanley
*Cheltenham v Crewe

Away team not to lose
Scunthorpe v Huddersfield (A/A @ 3.55)
Barnet v Southend (A/A @ 3.75)
*Wycombe v Charlton (A/A @ 3.15)
*Torquay v AFC Wimbledon (A/A @ 5.3)

I have decided to go for Crawley Town, Cheltenham to win at home, and Charlton and AFC Wimbledon to not lose away. Odds for this with Coral is 4.6

Also, going for Barnet v Southend to be A/A at HT/FT @ 3.75. I have also put the odds for the away to be winning at half-time and full-time. It is good odds, and if they are leading at half-time, I tend to then bet that they do not win, so that I win no matter what the outcome. I am still trying to figure out whether it may be better to just bet on the half-time result (odds start off lower).

Alternative Bets 
I am now looking at the results for the top and bottom team in each league and their result. So for the team in first position, a win, and the bottom team to lose.

League One
1st Charlton to win @ 1.83
24th Leyton Orient  to lose @ 2.63
League Two
1st Crawley Town to win @ 1.36
24th Plymouth to lose @ 1.44

For the above to come true, the odds are around 9.42

Last weekend games were
Premiership
1st Man City to win CORRECT 
20th Blackburn to lose CORRECT 
Championship
1st Southampton to win WRONG 
24th Bristol City to lose CORRECT 
League One
1st Charlton to win CORRECT 
24th Exeter to lose WRONG
League Two
1st Crawley Town to win CORRECT 
24th Plymouth to lose CORRECT 

looking at this, in hindsight it seems the majority are correct but I got the feeling the previous week could have been worse, so will keep a list as I go on (until I get bored).

Weekend 22nd October - Result

Home win
Leicester v Millwall @ 1.62 LOST 0-3
Newcastle v Wigan @ 1.62 WON 1-0
Southend v Torquay @ 1.73 WON 4-1
Hull v Watford @ 1.8 WON 3-2

Away team not to lose
Rotherham v Shrewsbury AW @ 2.6; D @ 3.25 WON 1-1
Bristol City v Birmingham  AW @ 2.3; D @ 3.25 WON 0-1
Blackburn v Tottenham  AW @ 1.91; D @ 3.2 WON 1-2


My half-time/Full-time bets
Wolves v Swansea H/H @ 3.2 (Betfair) LOST A/D
Aston Villa v WBA H/H @ 3.75 LOST D/A
Southend v Torquay D/H @ 5.3 WON D/H

Weekend 22nd October

Home win
Leicester v Millwall @ 1.62
Newcastle v Wigan @ 1.62
Southend v Torquay @ 1.73
Hull v Watford @ 1.8

Away team not to lose
Rotherham v Shrewsbury AW @ 2.6; D @ 3.25
Bristol City v Birmingham  AW @ 2.3; D @ 3.25
Blackburn v Tottenham  AW @ 1.91; D @ 3.2


My half-time/Full-time bets
Wolves v Swansea H/H @ 3.2 (Betfair)
Aston Villa v WBA H/H @ 3.75
Southend v Torquay D/H @ 5.3

Weekend 15 October - Result

Home wins
Chelsea v Everton @ 1.33 WON 2-0
Middlesbrough v Millwall  @ 1.73 LOST 1-1
AFC Wimbledon v Crewe @ 1.8 LOST 1-3
Hartlepool v Wycombe @ 1.8 LOST 1-3
Southend v Morecambe @ 1.8 LOST 1-1

Away team to not lose
Bristol City v Peterborough AW 2.5; D 3.25 WON 1-2
Yeovil v Carlisle AW 2.5; D 3.25 WON 0-3
Stevenage v Charlton AW 2.25; D 3.2 LOST 1-0
Walsall v Preston AW 2.2; D 3.25 LOST 1-0
Exeter v Huddersfield  AW 1.91; D 3.2 WON 0-4


This picking two home teams to win and two away teams not to lose is harder than I thought. I have not won using this method for the last three weeks.


I think betting 2-3 games will give me odds of around 2.5 - 3.1, so may just choose that route, but will keep analysing this method, and wait till I can consistently pick the winners.


But I was lucky, when Preston conceded a goal, I put a bet on Betfair for under 1.5 goals which was matched at 11, and then placed a bet on over 1.5 in the 78th minute, although in hindsight I could have left it, but I was expecting a late goal which did not materialise. I still won, but was safe in the knowledge that I won irrespective of whether a goal is scored or not.


I still bet on Betfair and choose the HT/FT selection and choose H/H or A/A depending on the team. I chose Tottenham to win away at Newcastle and that was matched at 4.4. Luckily they scored a pen, and as they were then winning, the odds were at 1.57, so I could then lay a bet that Spurs would not win. This would then enable me to win if Spurs won or not.  
 Obviously if Spurs did not win the first half my tactic would be useless, so it still requires luck on picking the teams to lead at half-time.

Weekend 15 October

The games that I am considering are:-

Home wins
Chelsea v Everton @ 1.33
Middlesbrough v Millwall  @ 1.73
AFC Wimbledon v Crewe @ 1.8
Hartlepool v Wycombe @ 1.8
Southend v Morecambe @ 1.8

Away team to not lose
Bristol City v Peterborough AW 2.5; D 3.25
Yeovil v Carlisle AW 2.5; D 3.25
Stevenage v Charlton AW 2.25; D 3.2
Walsall v Preston AW 2.2; D 3.25
Exeter v Huddersfield  AW 1.91; D 3.2

I have picked Chelsea and Middlesbrough to win at home and Preston and Huddersfield to not lose which I get odds at 4.42 with Coral. Not bad, but Middlesbrough is really a draw specialist at home, although Millwall are really bad away.

So picked the favourites in both groups, but we'll see if I am right. Also got a double on MK Dons and Hartlepool to win at 2/1.

Weekend 8th October - Results

Home win
Charlton v Tranmere  @ 1.5 Lost 1-1
Huddersfield v Stevenage  @ 1.57 WON 2-1
Swindon v Hereford @ 1.57 Lost 3-3
 Shrewsbury v Barnet  @ 1.57 WON 3-2
Sheff Wed v Chesterfield @ 1.62 WON 3-1
Colchester v Yeovil  @ 1.73 Lost 2-2


Away Team to not lose
Crewe v Southend   AW @ 2.5; Draw @ 3.25 WON 1-3


Although I had 3 home games right, I luckily picked the three for my treble so won. Only Charlton was the game where they never led during the match, so I would have done okay even if I lost, as I was betting for the outcomes to not win at home on the BetFair website, so made a bit from the Huddersfield game as they conceded, but then won the game. I could have done this with the Shrewsbury game but did not think that they would score.

Football - 8th October 2011

Not many games are playing due to International week

Home win
Charlton v Tranmere  @ 1.5
Huddersfield v Stevenage  @ 1.57
Swindon v Hereford @ 1.57
 Shrewsbury v Barnet  @ 1.57
Sheff Wed v Chesterfield @ 1.62
Colchester v Yeovil  @ 1.73


Away Team to not lose
Crewe v Southend   AW @ 2.5; Draw @ 3.25

I am considering just picking 2-3 home teams to win from the above selection will give around 3.7

We will see if the above results are accurate

Football - 1st October 2011 RESULTS

The results. I am still not hitting a high percentage of results,

Home wins
Crawley Town v Plymouth @ 1.33 WON 2-0
Southampton v Watford @ 1.57 WON 4-0
Blackpool v Bristol City @ 1.73 WON 5-0
Peterborough v Doncaster @ 1.8 LOST 1-2
Burton Albion v Bradford @ 2.1 LOST 2-2

Away or Draw
Blackburn v Man City DRAW @ 4 AW @ 1.53 WON 0-4
Bolton v Chelsea DRAW @ 3.8 AW @ 1.53 WON 1-5
Hereford v Oxford Utd DRAW @ 3.3 AW @ 2.1 WON 0-1
Leyton Orient v Preston DRAW @ 3.4 AW @ 2.1 LOST 2-1
Exeter v Oldham DRAW @ 3.3 AW @ 2.75 LOST 2-0
Reading v Middlesbrough Draw @ 3.3 AW @ 2.75 WON 0-0
Wolverhampton v Newcastle DRAW @ 3.3 AW@ 2.88 WON 1-2

Football - 1st October 2011

The games where I am hoping the form teams prevail.

Home wins
Crawley Town v Plymouth @ 1.33
Burton Albion v Bradford @ 2.1
Blackpool v Bristol City @ 1.73
Peterborough v Doncaster @ 1.8
Southampton v Watford @ 1.57


Away or Draw
Reading v Middlesbrough Draw @ 3.3 AW @ 2.75
Wolverhampton v Newcastle DRAW @ 3.3 AW@ 2.88
Exeter v Oldham DRAW @ 3.3 AW @ 2.75
Hereford v Oxford Utd DRAW @ 3.3 AW @ 2.1
Blackburn v Man City DRAW @ 4 AW @ 1.53
Bolton v Chelsea DRAW @ 3.8 AW @ 1.53
Leyton Orient v Preston DRAW @ 3.4 AW @ 2.1

Example of how my bet works.

If I pick Crawley Town and Burton Albion to be the two home games to win; and Preston and Chelsea to not lose away

I will put a £10 stake on this

The odds on this will be 3.95

So, Crawley HW and Burton HW will be on the four bets with the variation for the away games (as below)

Preston AW and Chelsea AW = £4.40 stake with winnings £39.58
Preston AW and Chelsea DRAW = £1.77 stake with winnings of £39.55
Preston DRAW and Chelsea AW = £2.72 stake with winnings of £39.62
Preston DRAW and Chelsea DRAW = £1.09 stake with winnings of £39.43

Total stake bet is £9.98

And the minimum winning is £39.43; so the odds is 3.95
So as long as the home games win, and two away games do not lose then I win. So how you pick the teams is through the form guide.